Here are some data to keep in mind when you see headlines about rising violent crime. Homicides + aggravated assaults both appear to have risen in 2020. Importantly, though, both began to decline, after spiking in the summer. Here are homicides: cdn.ymaws.com/counciloncj.or… 
People often see headlines about rising crime between 2 years & assume a continuous trajectory, i.e. that crime is continuing to climb upwards. That's not what the data show.
-2020 homicides broadly followed the same patterns as previous years. Violent crime tends to peak in the summer then decline
-That said, the peak in 2020 was especially steep & also higher than previous years
-The decline was also steep, tho #'s didn't return to pre-2020 baseline
-That said, the peak in 2020 was especially steep & also higher than previous years
-The decline was also steep, tho #'s didn't return to pre-2020 baseline
Why did this happen? We don't know yet. It could be that 2020 was an outlier due to random variation, or it could be that the pandemic + massive social unrest contributed. We don't know if we'll see a similar peak in 2021. I write more about this here:
https://twitter.com/magi_jay/status/1399851669647769603
Similar effects can be seen for aggravated assault rates. 2020 levels are higher than previous years, but follow the same general pattern: peaking in the summer, then declining. cdn.ymaws.com/counciloncj.or…
It's important to understand these data b/c the media has made some interpretative errors and conservatives are already seizing on "rising crime!" That said, it can be hard to debunk all this w/out seeming as if one is *minimizing* crime.
I'm not trying to do that.
I'm not trying to do that.
A couple of things can be true:
-Homicides and aggravated assaults are shamefully high in the U.S. The pain of communities w/ high crime rates should not be ignored
-Conservatives disingenuously seize on year-to-year fluctuations to spread fear & disinformation
-Homicides and aggravated assaults are shamefully high in the U.S. The pain of communities w/ high crime rates should not be ignored
-Conservatives disingenuously seize on year-to-year fluctuations to spread fear & disinformation
Unless we see longer-term trend data, we should be less concerned w/ single year-to-year increases than w/ the *overall* high rate. Crime fluctuates from year to year*. And, again, 2020 was pretty unique.
Liberals have solutions for the overall crime rate:
-greater social support (anti-poverty; pro-housing; education; mental health services; etc)
-gun control!
Conservatives don't have solutions.
They only have fear and propaganda.
-greater social support (anti-poverty; pro-housing; education; mental health services; etc)
-gun control!
Conservatives don't have solutions.
They only have fear and propaganda.
PS: Like I said, crime can fluctuate quite a bit from year to year. Sometimes this is indicative of a longer trend, sometimes it's just random, sometimes it's linked to specific events (pandemic?). There are also differences in data collection, reporting to the FBI, coding, etc
Additionally, these fluctuations can seem *huge* in percentage terms b/c violent crime is statistically rare. This means that small differences in absolute #'s can amount to big percentage differences. The latter are what you typically see in headlines.
So, for example, per the FBI, there were 73 homicides from "Brawl Due to Alcohol" in 2014 & 118 such homicides in 2015, a 64% increase. Should this have made us panic about ever-increasing brawl deaths? No. It was just normal year-to-year variability resulting in a big % change
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