Thread by @mahmouedgamal44

Ethiopia's ambitions to have a naval power ~ Thread

Initially, Ethiopia is a landlocked country, so it will need to have enough capabilities & resources to lease an abroad military base in one of East/Horn of Africa countries in order to revive the navy again.

Background: Following the Ethiopian Civil War in 1991, Ethiopia lost its coast including the vital port of Assab, leaving it landlocked after the declaration of Eritrea independence that forced Ethiopia to transfer its naval capabilities to station at the Yemeni ports.

Few years later in 1993, Yemen expelled the Ethiopian Navy ships, so they decided to head to Djibouti and lease a harbour, but in 1996, Ethiopia had fallen behind in paying the harbour dues, and under this pretext Djibouti seized all of the remaining Ethiopian Navy ships.

Thus, Ethiopia has no navy since 90s, However, in 2018, Ethiopia announced promising plans to revive the navy

Later, it was reported during Ethiopian PM visit to Paris in 2018 that France will contribute to help Ethiopia in building its new naval capabilities.

Why Ethiopia wants to have a naval power?

Ethiopia is trying to have military influence in southern Red Sea region, also to protect the maritime routes used by the Ethiopian commercial ships as most of thier trade is passing in maritime traffic through the Red Sea, Gulf of Aden.

Where will this potential navy be stationed?

- Eritrea 🇪🇷 & Djibouti 🇩🇯 are highly expected hubs

- Kenya 🇰🇪 (But its too far now)

- Somaliland (which is a new potential hub for building the navy installation as Ethiopia is eyeing now investments in Brebera port).

Eritrea 🇪🇷

UAE has abandoned recently its (FOB) military base in Assab port city which can be a very potential hub to accommodate the proposed Ethiopian Navy.

The base is well-prepared, so the Ethiopians wouldn't have to pay much in re-building & preparing new installations.

Djibouti 🇩🇯

Ethiopia is already using Djibouti port and handles roughly about 90% of its exports & imports

Ethiopian media outlets reported recently that the proposed Ethiopian navy will be stationed in Djibouti, where Ethiopia will lease an area in any harbour for its navy.

Conclusion: Ethiopia 🇪🇹 ambitions to build a navy even if happened, and that's too far, can't ever be considered as a threat to other regional powers

Ethiopia would take decades to have a real naval power, as for ships pronouncement, building infrastructure, training personnel.

What makes the matter more complicated for Ethiopia?

After the recent War in Tigray and the ENDF crimes there, EU countries, including France will not support Ethiopia militarily as well as in the form of building their naval power, despite any past promises.