Thread by @rggoobi

Behavioral economics teaches that human being do not only behave irrationally, we’re PREDICTABLY irrational. Today I drove around the city and realized 7/10 people wore a mask; and in a proper way. This is very good but raises a few questions:
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1. Why did people wait for COVID to turn wide-spread to practice the preventive measures that experts have been telling us to practice since the pandemic began?
2. Why did we wait for the car to knock for us to remember to wear the seatbelt?
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Behavioralists think people’s decisions are not based on a complete analysis of all available information. That we, humans, tend to make “mental shortcuts” (behavioralists call them heuristics) until we find out that our mental shortcuts lied to us.
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They think we suffer from the following biases:
1. Present bias - we tend to prefer a smaller sooner pay-off over a larger future pay-off. Adhering to Covid SoPs involves trading off the pleasure of going to the bar (current benefit) and the risk of COVID (uncertain future cost)

2. Status-quo bias - preference for the current status and an unwillingness to change it. We tend to interpret the potential disadvantages of changing the status quo as greater than the potential benefits. We refused to listen to Covid SoPs bse the status quo was better.
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3. Framing effect - our choices often depend on the way they’re framed, and these choices are often affected by whether the possible outcomes are framed in terms of the gains or the losses….
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…Health messages framed as gains or benefits are more likely to increase preventive behaviors than those framed as losses. How were COVID messages framed? Were they more biased to scaring when one contracts it rather than sending a positive message of prevention?
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4. Optimism bias - people tend to display unrealistic optimism about their vulnerability to a wide set of negative outcomes and often see themselves as being at less-than-average risk of negative outcomes. Didn’t we think our weather and food made us COVID immune?
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5. Herding behaviour - considering that a certain behaviour is good or bad based on the behavior of other people. That’s of friends, family, and workmates etc. So likely that those with friends who social distanced, wore a mask etc, behaved that way & vice versa.
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All said, congratulations for finally realizing we need to wear a mask, avoid congested places, sanitize regularly, and take a vaccine. Let’s forget the past, forgive ourselves, and continue behaving this way until Covid is declared over.
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@KagutaMuseveni Mr. President, given the above, I don’t think there’s need for another lockdown. Let Government invest more effort and resources in enforcement of the SoPs. We can’t afford another hard lockdown. We’re broke and already sick.
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