0/10 The market continues to move sideways in what we're calling No Man's Land. It's punishing the impatient as they jockey for position, while the rest of us wait to strike. The question is what are the signs we are looking for?
Here is a thread on those signs.. 🧵👇
1/10 Ten days ago we cautioned the market was entering No Man's Land. And believe or not, we still lack certainty in the market. Here's what we mean...
2/10 Our in-house onchain signals have remained silent for days. Nothing bullish nor bearish coming in. Meaning market movers are on the sidelines happy to wait for the market to take shape.
3/10 USDt is drying up on exchanges with less than 2 billion Tether on exchanges, contrasting to the 60 billion USDt in the market. Concerning.
4/10 We even saw Tether burn 2 billion USDt a few days back after some chain swapping and house cleaning. First time this has happened in about six months. This highlights a lack of demand.
5/10 Times of high volatility are always followed by periods of low volatility while periods of low volatility are followed by high volatility. Implied Volatility (IV) is a way to price in volatility, and it's still coming down. It will likely need more time for this to reset.
6/10 So what is the market waiting for outside of volatility to reset? What will bring market movers and USDt demand back into the market?
7/10 Here are onchain supports and resistances. This doesn't exist anywhere else. We call is the Feeding Grounds Whalemap chart.
The white arrow is pointing to a major selling point and marks the breakdown of $50k range.
8/10 The green area represents the last line of defense at $35k. If we get another sweep here, price needs to hold. Otherwise, could get a bit rocky fast.
9/10 These two regions are where we expect to see signals begin to reappear. Depending on what comes through, it'll likely be the time to act.
10/10 If you like market musings like this. Read the newsletter read by over 10,000 hedge funds, financial journalists, and investment advisors.
0/17 Probably should make a thread on why Elon and Retail are not the culprits, but scapegoats...
Here it is 🧵👇
1/17 Call it a Wyckoff… Call it a distribution top pattern… Call it whales unloading on retail… Call it miners selling... Call it OTC desks wanting lower prices…
It's all accurate.
2/17 Only thing inaccurate is saying retail or Elon caused it.
Instead, there was a trifecta at play that led to current prices.
Reading a great insight by @mhonkasalo regarding Compound protocol.
Decided to collect my thoughts using a twitter thread format.
🧵👇
Compound set the crypto world on fire when it began to bootstrap liquidity to its network last year. You can probably guess when it happened by looking at this chart.
It bootstrapped liquidity through a subsidy program aka the birth of liquidity mining and yield farming. To date 1,140 COMP tokens are distributed per day, about $16.8m per month to serve its tens of thousands of users. Works out to be about $51/user or liquidity provider.
1/ 5: The indicator used here is a seven day moving average of the # of bitcoin entering exchanges. Typically when large inflows happen it's a bearish indicator since bitcoin tend to flow to exchanges to be sold.
2/5: Placing a seven day MA on this data we can view when inflows are excessive. We placed a green bar to highlight this zone we call the shakeout zone. Turns out this is a great reversal indicator. Meaning when the amount of bitcoin flowing into exchanges reaches an extreme.
3/5: As this indicator hits the shakeout zone it's historically the worst time to sell.
Which also means it's an ideal entry points for multi-month purchases. What's better is when you pair it up with the premium on Grayscale BTC Trust (GBTC).