We are now here. 
The source from this chart is Figure 2 of the SPI-M-O consensus statement of 12 May, a few days before we moved to Step 3 of the Roadmap.
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
The figure comes from the Warwick/JUNIPER Road Map scenarios
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/upl…
There is a lot of uncertainty in those models. The 'we are now here' chart above assumes for example that vaccines give complete protection.
PHE have been gathering evidence on the Delta/B.1.617.2/'India' variant.
This is their latest analysis.
There are risks in
- transmissibility
- infection severity
- vaccines, and to a lesser extent
- immunity after natural infection.
This is their latest analysis.
There are risks in
- transmissibility
- infection severity
- vaccines, and to a lesser extent
- immunity after natural infection.
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1400486520050618369
There is still uncertainty in these risks, but that uncertainty is narrowing.
A key factor in what may happen is transmissibility.
The Secretary of State for Health and Social care has said that the variant is " around 40% more transmissible"
A key factor in what may happen is transmissibility.
The Secretary of State for Health and Social care has said that the variant is " around 40% more transmissible"
https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1401453336415641600
On Friday, this was estimated at 60% more transmissible (with a range of between 30 and 60% more transmissible)
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1400704825986359301
There is still uncertainty.
We need:
- a consensus statement on the increase in transmissibility
- updated SPI-M modelling based on the newest data
- politicians to make decisions based on Data Not Dates
We need:
- a consensus statement on the increase in transmissibility
- updated SPI-M modelling based on the newest data
- politicians to make decisions based on Data Not Dates
https://twitter.com/Dr_D_Robertson/status/1363881367197671425
The Government will apparently make their decision on or around 14 June (a week before the earliest Step 4 date of 21 June)
It is imperative that the Government use the evidence & overcome an optimisim bias, as no-one wants to go into a *fourth* lockdown (of whatever stringency)
It is imperative that the Government use the evidence & overcome an optimisim bias, as no-one wants to go into a *fourth* lockdown (of whatever stringency)
Back to the chart
*If* Delta is 40% more transmissibile per Matt Hancock, it could be taken that the Government is working on the basis that the next wave will be lower than the 1st or 2nd peaks (but large)
However, this 40% claim doesn't *appear* (publicly) to be a consensus.
*If* Delta is 40% more transmissibile per Matt Hancock, it could be taken that the Government is working on the basis that the next wave will be lower than the 1st or 2nd peaks (but large)
However, this 40% claim doesn't *appear* (publicly) to be a consensus.
correction: range was estimated on Friday as being between 30% and 100% more transmissible
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
