Thread by @19thnews

The Supreme Court is hearing arguments this fall over the constitutionality of Mississippi’s 15-week abortion ban.

Some states are moving forward with even tighter restrictions, with a growing list banning abortion after six weeks. 🧵bit.ly/3uVmvsq

In May, Texas became the latest state to pass a six-week abortion ban.

In total, 13 states have passed these bans: Idaho, North Dakota, Oklahoma, Texas, Iowa, Missouri, Louisiana, Ohio, Kentucky, Tennessee, Mississippi, South Carolina and Georgia. bit.ly/3uVmvsq

The six-week abortion bans directly violate Roe v. Wade, which guarantees the right to terminate a pregnancy up until the fetus can independently live outside the womb, usually around 23 weeks of pregnancy. bit.ly/3uVmvsq

Six weeks is early enough that many people aren’t likely to realize they are pregnant, let alone decide whether they want to get an abortion.

“To call it a six-week ban — it’s really a two-week window at best,” said @YaleLawSch’s Katherine Kraschel. bit.ly/3uVmvsq

Most abortions occur in the first trimester, and don’t require surgery.

- In 2018, the most recent year for which @CDCgov has data, more than 92 percent of abortions took place at or by the 13th week. bit.ly/3uVmvsq

- Almost 78 percent of abortions took place at or before nine weeks of pregnancy.

- About 36 percent of abortions were performed at or before six weeks.

That indicates that the majority of abortions occur between six and 13 weeks of gestation. bit.ly/3uVmvsq

States that have passed six-week bans also have other restrictions in place, which can make the deadline even harder to meet.

- In Missouri, people must wait 72hrs between initial visit and the actual abortion.

- Ohio, Kentucky, Texas, South Carolina and Louisiana: 24hrs.

Just a decade ago, six-week abortion bans were relatively unheard of. In 2013, North Dakota became the first state to pass one.

No others were signed into law until 2018. But since then, they have spread through conservative states. bit.ly/3uVmvsq

The laws emerged in part because states passing six-week bans had already become so restrictive that this type of law was the logical next step for lawmakers looking to further limit abortion access, said @Guttmacher’s Elizabeth Nash. bit.ly/3uVmvsq

Legal experts also attribute the surge to former President Donald Trump’s efforts to nominate Supreme Court justices who opposed abortion rights, and who were seen as likely to rule in favor of enhanced restrictions on the procedure. bit.ly/3uVmvsq

Only three of the bans — those in Texas, Idaho and Oklahoma — have not been blocked by either a lower federal court or a state supreme court.

Idaho and Oklahoma’s laws haven’t yet taken effect. bit.ly/3uVmvsq

But experts are anticipating those three laws will also face legal challenges and be blocked pending any new #SCOTUS decision.

Under existing Roe v. Wade precedent, it’s difficult to see how the bans could stay, since six weeks is well before the threshold of fetal viability.

And while #SCOTUS is famously unpredictable, the justices — depending on how they rule on Mississippi’s ban — could create a new precedent that allows for six-week bans, or that opens the door to future favorable rulings on these types of restrictions. bit.ly/3uVmvsq

“We’re always in this position,” Nash said. “We don’t know what the court is going to do, but it seems like they have a number of roads they could go down.”

More from @Shefalil: bit.ly/3uVmvsq