.@MarkMazzettiNYT and @julianbarnes report that US and Pakistan are negotiating a base in Pakistan for post-withdrawal counterterrorism operations in Afghanistan, according to three US officials. Highlights: 1/n nytimes.com/2021/06/06/us/…
This is part of a last-minute Biden admin effort to secure a counterterrorism posture for Afghanistan by the time of US pullout from Afghanistan.
In the difficult negotiation trying to work around the reality of Pakistan’s support for the Taliban, Pakistan is demanding restriction on use of base including requiring signing off on targets US gov’t wants to hit.
CIA Director Burns made a trip to Islamabad to discuss counterterrorism cooperation.
Some US officials believe Pakistan wants to allow US access, deal is possible. Others say negotiations have hit an impasse.
Diplomats are also exploring options in Central Asia but expect fierce opposition from Russian president Putin. n/n
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[Thread] The UN Monitoring Team's annual report for the 1988 sanctions committee on the Afghan Taliban is out. Some highlights: 1/n undocs.org/S/2021/486
On the Taliban's leadership: Mullah Yaqub is second in line after first deputy Siraj Haqqani to Taliban leader Akhundzada.
On Taliban's cohesion: Independent operations and power wielded by Taliban field commanders has become a growing concern; Sadr Ibrahim and Zakir at times act more autonomously; overall though unity within the movement remains strong.
"[The US withdrawal is] certainly not considered good news in China. Once the U.S. absolves itself from the material and moral responsibilities to Afghanistan, its approach to the country could become more flexible, pragmatic, and tactical in serving a broader agenda."
"For the past 20 years, China has demonstrated a contradictory attitude toward the U.S. presence in Afghanistan. On the one hand, China has seen America’s war, presence, and “manipulation” or “distortion” of Afghan politics as the cause of instability."
"[at the same time] China has consistently seen the U.S. wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as godsends that blessed China with a golden “window of strategic opportunity” to develop its strength without alarming the United States after 2001."
.@NicRobertsonCNN & @SaleemMehsud report: "In an exclusive interview...al Qaeda official tells CNN that "war against the US will be continuing on all other fronts unless they are expelled from the rest of the Islamic world."" 1/n cnn.com/2021/04/30/asi…
"...al Qaeda's spokesperson heaps praise on the Taliban for keeping the fight against America alive. "Thanks to Afghans for the protection of comrades-in-arms, many such jihadi fronts have been successfully operating in different parts of the Islamic world for a long time...""
"Through journalistic intermediaries, CNN stringer Saleem Mehsud reached out to al Qaeda for its reaction to Biden's move to pull out troops from Afghanistan, and rather than ignore him as it has done so many times in the past, representatives answered."
Al-Qaeda is unlikely to direct mass-casualty attacks in the US homeland in 2021 but online communication between AQAP and Pensacola attacker shows the ability of the group to capitalize on opportunities.
Al-Qaeda's appeal to Salafi jihadists has waned due to ISIS, unlikely to change in 2021; Zawahiri remains in hiding (so alive?).