This part of the scam was not specifically discussed in my MoviePass dissection dated December 2017, but this fraud was, of course, used to reduce COGS.
You may recall that the MoviePass stock price chart replicates the trajectory of a Six Flags roller coaster named "Dumbo's Chariot." Few understand this.
You may also recall this picture of the MoviePass founders laughing like they are Ray Liotta in Goodfellas.
This is what experienced investors use as a "tell" that the business is a fraud. The tell is technically known as "the Liotta Omen."
4/ When I posted my MoviePass analysis in December 2017 two people said in replies it was a strong buy. I said it was a story stock and there was no telling when it would crash, but that it certainly would. It is rare for me to get that specific. I try to avoid giving stock tips.
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
1/ A offers a freemium SaaS product for use by artists. No user of the service pays anything (fiat money or otherwise) until they hit a usage threshold. Is the cost of supporting non-paying users part of:
1) cost of goods sold (COGS); or
2) customer acquisition cost (CAC)?
2/ Clue: Is there a GAAP definition of customer acquisition cost (CAC)? If not, why not?
What is the value of understanding this factor's impact on a customer lifetime value analysis?
3/ Does whether the cost of supporting non paying customers in a freemium business model appears above the gross margin line (COGS) or below the gross margin line (CAC), tell you something important about unit economics and the value of your customer? hurricanecapital.files.wordpress.com/2015/02/the-ec…
1/ "... algorithmic is more likely to succeed [in short time windows] because this day, the market probably resembles a lot what happened yesterday.. further out, those things break down..." Dennis Lynch joincolossus.com/episodes/40040…
2/ "We're trying to win by time arbitrage or having a longer time horizon. I'm looking not this year's earnings, but three, five years plus out. And hopefully being able to then have the ability to stick with our positions .. ultimately it's a patience temperament edge." D Lynch
3/ Assume you have a demanding day job and do not have access to a team of skilled data scientists and software developers.
Are you more likely to succeed as an investor, without investing through a fund, based on:
"5G is just the next G. We have to do it. Our capital profile is reasonably consistent over time. So monetization of 5G it’s the same game plan we’ve always had. We were focused on getting the crown jewel asset around mid-band 5G,” T-Mobile CEO M. Sievert sdxcentral.com/articles/news/…
"We kind of side-eyed cable selling wireless and said, ‘yes, they are an MVNO, they will never be able to really, but [did] very effectively. They have been more successful than we thought. Without owner economics, they can’t compete with us sustainably." fiercewireless.com/operators/t-mo…
"This year we will move from our current 60 to 80 megahertz deployed in mid-band 5G to 100 megahertz on a superior piece of spectrum, 2.5 GHz, that propagates farther.” T-Mobile' Sievert
Everything in wireless involves tradeoffs. Suite spot spectrum is many hertz not too high.
1/ Every successful entrepreneur knows customer lifetime value (CLV) is the difference between the present value of the cash flows a customer generates over his or her lifetime and the cost to acquire the customer. This applies to my hamburger example here or a SaaS business.
3/ CLV is a particularly important tool today because: 1) customer acquisition costs happen up front; and 2) GAAP requiring that the cost of intangible assets be expensed rather than capitalized makes "earnings" a potentially misleading way to determine the value of a business.
1/ When an investor talks about "unit economics," they are taking about a discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis.
CLV = "the present value of cash flows that a customer generates while they are engaged with the firm minus the cost to acquire the customer." morganstanley.com/im/publication…
2/ The value of understanding the CBCV/LTV of customers was immediately apparent when I saw cable, mobile and software businesses create obvious value without GAAP earnings. By focusing on cash flow and value creation having a variant perception that generated alpha wasn't hard.
3/ The current customers are the basis for the steady-state value and
future customers are the source of the present value of growth opportunities (PVGO). Exhibit 1 shows the drivers of
value.
CBCV = a bottoms-up DCF of all present and future potential customers.
2/ "Be obsessive about understanding everything you possibly can about your craft. That requires you to keep learning over time. Study the history, know the pioneers. It's the bedrock foundation for what you're going to build upon." Bill Gurley jamesclear.com/great-speeches…
3/ "Develop mentors in your field. Take every chance you can to find somebody who can teach you about the field you want to excel in. You don't have to jump straight to the top on day one. Treat them with respect. Debate things, learn from them." Bill Gurley