Thread by @trevortombe

Today's vaccine update:

- Shots reported today *: 407,964 (38% 2nd doses)
- Total shots: 26,503,428
- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 70.8%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 73.1% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 69.7
- Inventory: 8.8 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

* Includes some weekend doses

The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.3% have at least one dose and 17.0% have two
- 18-59: it's 66.0% and 7.4%
- Adults: 73.1% and 10.3%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates

In total, Canada is now up to 26.5 million shots given -- which is 88.8% of the total 29.8 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 3,801,418 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 3.0 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.

Canada's daily pace:

Today's 407,964 shots given compares to an average of 377,290/day over the past week and 354,408/day the week prior.

- Pace req'd for 2 doses to 75% of Canadians by Sept 30: 265,292
- At current avg pace, we reach 75% by Aug 26

And here's what our current pace means going forward. Enough doses to achieve:

- 75% w/ 1+ dose and 20% w/ 2 by June 20
- 75% w/ 1+ dose and 50% w/ 2: July 16
- 75% w/ 2 doses: August 7

The above is total doses. Based on that, and a model of 1st vs 2nd shots, here's a more detailed projection:

- 75% of people with a shot: June 15
- 20% fully vaccinated: June 24
- Match current U.S. fully vaccinated rate: July 25
- 75% fully vaccinated: August 17

Dose projections are informative, but effective protection is lower than the share with a shot. One dose is less effective than two, plus effects lag and are uncertain. Roughly, current "coverage" is ~21-42%

Useful research summary: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/docume…

Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 130 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: PE at 63

- Highest share of delivered doses used: AB with 93%
- Lowest: NU with 64%

A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 69% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: QC at 58% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 60%
- Fewest Vaccinated: NU at 44%

How does Canada compare to others? Here's all 37 OECD (i.e., developed) countries:

- Share of pop. w/ at least one dose: Canada ranks 2nd
- Total doses per 100: 7th
- Fully vaccinated: 31st

Canada/US comparison.

Received at least one dose:
- Top Prov: QC, 65.2% of pop
- Top State: VT, 71.5
- Top Terr: YT, 69.2

Fully vaccinated:
- Top Prov: AB, 12.3% of pop
- Top State: VT, 59.0
- Top Terr: YT, 60.5

Interactive plot here: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/usa

Going forward, here's a cdn/usa comparison of total doses per 100 people.

- In Canada, this rises by 0.99 per day. The US rises by 0.34 per day.
- Projected out, we match the US in 33 days
- Reaching the current US rate takes 22 days.

Of course, there's lots of countries and many ways to compare. Here's a selection across several metrics/groups of how Canada ranks globally. Pick your preferred measure!

Fin.

Note: all graphs (and more!) are automatically updated and posted online for later review and easy sharing at the following site: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/