Today's vaccine update:

- Shots reported today: 352,219* (54% 2nd doses)
- Total shots: 26,855,647
- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 71.3%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 73.3% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 70.7
- Inventory: 8.5 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/
* Missing YT (not reported yet)
The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.3% have at least one dose and 18.1% have two
- 18-59: it's 66.3% and 7.8%
- Adults: 73.3% and 10.9%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
In total, Canada is now up to 26.9 million shots given -- which is 89.1% of the total 30.1 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,371,492 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 3.2 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
Canada's daily pace:

Today's 352,219 shots given compares to an average of 383,757/day over the past week and 361,660/day the week prior.

- Pace req'd for 2 doses to 75% of Canadians by Sept 30: 264,529
- At current avg pace, we reach 75% by Aug 25
And here's what our current pace means going forward. Enough doses to achieve:

- 75% w/ 1+ dose and 20% w/ 2 by June 20
- 75% w/ 1+ dose and 50% w/ 2: July 16
- 75% w/ 2 doses: August 6
The above is total doses. Based on that, and a model of 1st vs 2nd shots, here's a more detailed projection:

- 75% of people with a shot: June 14
- 20% fully vaccinated: June 23
- Match current U.S. fully vaccinated rate: July 23
- 75% fully vaccinated: August 15
Dose projections are informative, but effective protection is lower than the share with a shot. One dose is less effective than two, plus effects lag and are uncertain. Roughly, current "coverage" is ~21-43%

Useful research summary: publichealthontario.ca/-/media/docume…
Turning to individual provinces, here's total shots given and share of delivered doses used.

- Most shots given: YT at 130 doses per 100 people
- Fewest: PE at 65

- Highest share of delivered doses used: AB with 95%
- Lowest: NU with 65%
A more detailed look at provs/terrs:

- Highest overall: YT at 69% receiving at least one shot
- Most 1st doses only: NL at 59% receiving that shot
- Most Fully Vaccinated: YT at 60%
- Fewest Vaccinated: NU at 45%
How does Canada compare to others? Here's all 37 OECD (i.e., developed) countries:

- Share of pop. w/ at least one dose: Canada ranks 2nd
- Total doses per 100: 7th
- Fully vaccinated: 31st
Canada/US comparison.

Received at least one dose:
- Top Prov: QC, 65.6% of pop
- Top State: VT, 71.7
- Top Terr: YT, 69.2

Fully vaccinated:
- Top Prov: AB, 13.0% of pop
- Top State: VT, 59.4
- Top Terr: YT, 60.5

Interactive plot here: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/usa
Going forward, here's a cdn/usa comparison of total doses per 100 people.

- In Canada, this rises by 1.01 per day. The US rises by 0.32 per day.
- Projected out, we match the US in 30 days
- Reaching the current US rate takes 21 days.
Of course, there's lots of countries and many ways to compare. Here's a selection across several metrics/groups of how Canada ranks globally. Pick your preferred measure!
Fin.

Note: all graphs (and more!) are automatically updated and posted online for later review and easy sharing at the following site: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

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More from @trevortombe

10 Jun
Today's vaccine update:

- Shots reported today*: 401,833 (59% 2nd doses)
- Total shots: 27,257,480
- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 71.8%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 73.6% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 71.7
- Inventory: 7.8 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

* Missing YT (not reported yet)
The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.4% have at least one dose and 19.4% have two
- 18-59: it's 66.6% and 8.3%
- Adults: 73.6% and 11.7%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates
In total, Canada is now up to 27.3 million shots given -- which is 90.0% of the total 30.3 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 2,141,010 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 3.4 million are fully vaccinated with two shots.
Read 14 tweets
9 Jun
Today's vaccine update for Alberta:

-Everyone: 57.3% have at least one dose and 13.4% have two
-Age 12+: 67.2% and 15.7%
-Age 20+: 68% and 17.3%

Stage 2 target: 60% of 12+ w/ 1+ doses (achieved!)

Stage 3 target: 70% of 12+ w/ 1+ doses
And here's the pace of Alberta's vaccination over time. Today's rate of 34,636 compares to an average of 45,155 over the past week. And today, 9,708 were first doses and 24,928 were second.
Going forward, Alberta will remove all provincial public health restrictions two weeks after 70% of those age 12+ have at least one dose.

At its current pace, that share is reached on June 15 so full re-opening would occur on June 29.

We reach 50% fully vaccinated by July 18
Read 4 tweets
8 Jun
Today's vaccine update for Alberta:

-Everyone: 57% have at least one dose and 12.8% have two
-Age 12+: 67% and 15.1%
-Age 20+: 67.8% and 16.6%

Stage 2 target: 60% of 12+ w/ 1+ doses (achieved!)

Stage 3 target: 70% of 12+ w/ 1+ doses
And here's the pace of Alberta's vaccination over time. Today's rate of 39,107 compares to an average of 44,580 over the past week. And today, 11,749 were first doses and 27,358 were second.
Going forward, Alberta will remove all provincial public health restrictions two weeks after 70% of those age 12+ have at least one dose.

At its current pace, that share is reached on June 14 so full re-opening would occur on June 28.

We reach 50% fully vaccinated by July 19
Read 5 tweets
8 Jun
Today's vaccine update:

- Shots reported today *: 407,964 (38% 2nd doses)
- Total shots: 26,503,428
- Age 12+ w/ a Shot: 70.8%
- Age 18+ w/ a Shot: 73.1% (est)
- Shots per 100 people: 69.7
- Inventory: 8.8 days

More: trevortombe.github.io/covidgraphs/

* Includes some weekend doses Image
The latest estimates of vaccinations by age:

- Those 60+: 89.3% have at least one dose and 17.0% have two
- 18-59: it's 66.0% and 7.4%
- Adults: 73.1% and 10.3%

Note: data comes with a 6-13 day lag; these are my own estimates Image
In total, Canada is now up to 26.5 million shots given -- which is 88.8% of the total 29.8 million doses available. Over the past 7 days, 3,801,418 doses have been delivered to provinces.

And so far 3.0 million are fully vaccinated with two shots. Image
Read 14 tweets
7 Jun
Today's vaccine update for Alberta:

-Everyone: 56.8% have at least one dose and 12.2% have two
-Age 12+: 66.7% and 14.3%
-Age 20+: 67.5% and 15.7%

Stage 2 target: 60% of 12+ w/ 1+ doses (achieved!)

Stage 3 target: 70% of 12+ w/ 1+ doses Image
And here's the pace of Alberta's vaccination over time. Today's rate of 26,457 compares to an average of 43,241 over the past week. And today, 10,106 were first doses and 16,351 were second. Image
Going forward, Alberta will remove all provincial public health restrictions two weeks after 70% of those age 12+ have at least one dose.

At its current pace, that share is reached on June 13 so full re-opening would occur on June 27.

We reach 50% fully vaccinated by July 21 Image
Read 4 tweets
4 Jun
Today's vaccine update for Alberta:

-Everyone: 55.6% have at least one dose and 10.4% have two
-Age 12+: 65.3% and 12.2%
-Age 20+: 66.4% and 13.4%

Stage 2 target: 60% of 12+ w/ 1+ doses (achieved!)

Stage 3 target: 70% of 12+ w/ 1+ doses
Looking forward, Alberta will remove all provincial public health restrictions two weeks after 70% of those age 12+ have at least one dose.

At its current pace, that share is reached on June 9 so (if that pace holds) full re-opening occurs on June 23.
Where will Alberta be in terms of fully vaccinated? Or the 75/20 goal? Here's a rough guide based on when we'd have enough doses for different shares:

- 75% of age 12+ w/ 1+ dose and 20% w/ 2: June 19
- And 30% w/ 2 doses: June 28
Read 4 tweets

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