Thread by @IndivisibleTeam

Alright, let's talk about the op-ed. And let's talk about what's next. /THREAD

We've heard from SO MANY Indivisibles today with messages ranging from anger and despair to a renewed commitment to fight like hell for voting rights and the #ForThePeopleAct. We heard you. Now, we need you to hear us — because this fight is FAR from over.

https://twitter.com/ezralevin/status/1401619335878254596?s=20

First, @Sen_JoeManchin's op-ed is riddled with historical falsehoods and bizarre, antiquated political analysis. We don't need to get into that, but @RepMondaire did a perfect thread on it ICYMI.

https://twitter.com/MondaireJones/status/1401606676642422785?s=20

It's also worth noting up front that despite the intransigence of Senate Republicans led by @LeaderMcConnell, the #FTPA has overwhelming bipartisan support in West Virginia and across the country. newsweek.com/arizona-west-v…

Why did Manchin write that op-ed now? He wrote it because he's posturing ahead of the showdown on the filibuster. Just last week, @SenSchumer announced that he'd spend June bringing bills to the floor to force Republicans to filibuster. slate.com/news-and-polit…

The first was the filibuster of the January 6th commission, and next up is the #PaycheckFairness Act (here's a script to call your senators: indivisible.org/tell-your-sena…)

The point of scheduling these votes is not to win right now — we won't. It's to force McConnell to filibuster and to demonstrate to Joe Manchin, Kyrsten Sinema, and any other hold-out Democrat that the other side will simply sink everything. Period.

But here's the thing: Manchin would prefer not to force that question. As misguided as it is, Manchin believes that to protect voting rights, we should have to get the consent of the party that is attacking voting rights.

He wrote this op-ed to try and take the wind out of the sails of those setting up that showdown. If folks throw in the towel on the For the People Act, Manchin can go back to talking to Republican senators about roads and bridges.

So, what comes next? All attention has been on Manchin, and to a lesser extent, Senator Sinema, but the real main character in this play is @SenSchumer. As Majority Leader, he controls the Senate calendar. He can’t make the pieces move, but it’s his job to set up the play.

The big risk we face is that Manchin's announcement derails Schumer's plan to bring popular bills for a vote. That would look like Schumer cancelling the planned vote, pointing to Manchin's op-ed and saying, "Look we tried, we just don't have the votes." Delay is death.

So far, it looks like he's holding strong. And that's good, because this is a crucial test of Schumer's leadership: will he allow his plan to be derailed, or will he hold firm? We need him to remember when he said "failure is not an option" and say it LOUDLY this week.

What does victory look like? If Schumer sticks to his plan, the #ForThePeopleAct will come the week of June 21st. McConnell will filibuster it. But then the fight goes on.

Schumer could force McConnell to keep filibustering for days or longer. When the Senate returns from the July 4th recess, he brings up the bill again and forces McConnell to filibuster it again. He grinds Senate business to a halt, refusing action on anything until a #FTPA vote.

All the while, during the days and weeks of the fight, senators offer amendments, President Biden uses the full power of his bully pulpit to focus attention on the issue, and grassroots advocates show up across the country to demand Congress act to save the democracy.

If we're going to achieve this, 3⃣ things need to happen:
1. Isolate Manchin
2. Leadership from the top (see: @SenSchumer and @POTUS)
3. Leadership from the grassroots (that's you!)

Let's talk about number 3. This is our whole theory of change: elected officials don't do what their constituents want unless those constituents make them do it.

This is why we showed up to save the Affordable Care Act. It’s why we demanded our Democratic House impeach Trump. And it’s why we have to show up creatively, forcefully, and in big numbers to encourage this Democratic trifecta to finally act.

This is why we're launching Deadline for Democracy in a few days to take place 6/28-7/10. We’ll have more details soon — but this is the largest cross-movement coalition we’ve been part of since the fight to save Obamacare. Pledge to take action here: act.indivisible.org/signup/deadlin…

Remember: We’re living through historic times, so I’ll turn to some history to close us out. In 1964, it took overcoming a 54-day filibuster to pass the Civil Rights Act in the Senate.

The next year it took more than a month after the Voting Rights Act started full senate debate to get past the threat of a filibuster. The Jim Crow filibuster, then as now, did not go down without a long, drawn-out fight.

The For the People Act has not even been scheduled for a full senate vote yet. There’s been no debate. There’s been no filibuster. This is all pre-negotiation posturing — Manchin’s effort to defuse the situation so he can continue playacting the role of a statesman.

But Manchin doesn’t get to decide what happens next — we do. And we need you with us. Pledge to take action: act.indivisible.org/signup/deadlin…

And read more on what this means and what's next from IndivisibleTeam co-founder and co-executive director @ezralevin here: indivisibleteam.medium.com/so-what-the-he…

And as always, please, keep calling both your senators. They need to hear from you in this moment. indivisible.org/demand-your-se…