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Dave Weigel Profile picture
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8 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
If you are one of the many Americans who edits a campaign newsletter, you also probably think it’s funny that “key electoral tests” keep getting set up for the left, then immediately forgotten when the left wins.
New Mexico was supposed to be a test of crime/Dems not turning out voters under Trump. Then their candidate ran 9 points ahead of Haaland so everyone agreed to move on.
*dems not turning out WITHOUT Trump
Anyway: If Rs had a breakthrough election somewhere this year, I'd have written about it! The pattern has been Dems doing a little better in cities/suburbs and Rs doing a little better outside them, not a suburban rediscovery of GOP washingtonpost.com/politics/2021/…

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More from @daveweigel

Dave Weigel Profile picture
10 Jun
A look at how the *Democratic Establishment* [insert thunderclap noise] has been mostly routing the left in primaries this year, with the kings @SchneiderG and @michaelscherer. (Beating Trump made D voters much more content w their old guard.) washingtonpost.com/politics/mcaul…
McAuliffe's win was expected, but the left lost a winnable LG primary, and three left-wing VA legislators lost primaries; the pro-Green New Deal candidate lost in #LA02; Nina Turner, the likeliest Bernie Wing winner of the year, is running as a pro-Obama Dem.
The situation in #NM01 was a little different, bc the left-wing candidate lost in a virtual convention, not a primary. But the more center-left candidate ran ads touting her work with police and won by a landslide.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Weigel Profile picture
9 Jun
Speaker of Virginia’s HOD is a Jewish woman, Dem majority leader is a black woman. New Youngkin ad portrays him pushing through a sea of old white dudes, representing the “the same politicians” in Richmond. #VAGov really testing how voters define “outsider.” ImageImage
He’s running against Terry McAuliffe, who’s a white dude — this ad surely stays on shelf if JCF or McClellan one. It’s just interesting to see how Rs run as change agents; Dems in 2017/2019 made the story about the diverse candidates they were fielding
Youngkin’s other new spot uses clips of Jennifer Carroll Foy calling McAuliffe a failure and a “politician of the past,” so some of this is trying to see if liberal voters will be unenthused at the prospect of TMac coming back.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Weigel Profile picture
9 Jun
Looking good for Ayala in VA LG race; dominating NoVa, Richmond area. Rasoul not winning much outside of SWVA and getting wrecked in Tidewater.
This would be a blow for the left, which knew McAuliffe was going to be tough but correctly saw the LG race as wide open. Ayala spent last week on defense over Dominion domination, didn't seem to stop her.
The whole night is a testament to... Ralph Northam, who endorsed McAuliffe, helped Jones go the distance with Herring, and boosted Ayala in a race where, as one Democrat puts it, "nobody knew anything about anybody."
Read 4 tweets
Dave Weigel Profile picture
8 Jun
Yeah, that's what I mean - Dem turnout could fall dramatically from 2017 but it'd be unclear if Rs are in any better shape, bc they junked the primary for a convention. In 2017, D turnout doubled R turnout and the omen was hard to miss.
Sometimes primary turnout matters, sometimes it doesn't. In retrospect it was telling that 27 Democrats ran around Iowa ahead of the 2020 caucuses and turnout was actually down from 2016 in the R-trending parts of the state.
That said, one thing Democrats have found this year is that their voters are exhausted and just want to vote for whoever makes it out of the primary. This was a problem for them in #TX06 - lots of Dem voters assumed they could check out and pay attention during runoff.
Read 4 tweets
Dave Weigel Profile picture
8 Jun
Interesting thing in crosstabs: % of voters who say they *won't* rank the candidate at all. Change since April:

Adams: 28% (-)
Stringer: 33% (+9)
Yang: 34% (+13)
Garcia: 35% (-8)
Wiley: 40% (+3)
Donovan: 46% (+9)
McGuire: 47% (+4)
Morales: 55% (+10)

In other words, more than half of voters now say they won't rank Morales, but 9 in 10 know who she is. Since April, the percentage of voters who had no opinion of Garcia dropped by 10; the percentage of voters saying they'd at least rank her went up by 8.
Contrast that with Yang. Since April, the percentage of voters who don't know him fell from 21% to 11%; the percentage who won't rank him rose from 21% to 35%
Read 4 tweets
Dave Weigel Profile picture
25 May
Trump went out of his way *not* to be bipartisan and it just wasn't seen as a risk.

For example: Trump's two big bipartisan bills were First Step and CARES. Both needed Dem votes to pass. Now, look for the Dems at the signing ceremonies.

The governor of Kentucky at the time is there but not the Democrats who got the bill passed!

Contrast this with Biden signing an Alaska tourism bill and bringing the entire AK delegation (all GOP) to oval for a pic.
Trump lost re-election, so it wasn't a great strategy for him, but you didn't see much media commentary tut-tutting him for not trying to get Dems on a bill or shunning them if they did vote for it. It was just "wow, what will he do next?"
Read 4 tweets

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