Yeah, that's what I mean - Dem turnout could fall dramatically from 2017 but it'd be unclear if Rs are in any better shape, bc they junked the primary for a convention. In 2017, D turnout doubled R turnout and the omen was hard to miss.
https://twitter.com/aoxamaxoa/status/1402281249230626817
Sometimes primary turnout matters, sometimes it doesn't. In retrospect it was telling that 27 Democrats ran around Iowa ahead of the 2020 caucuses and turnout was actually down from 2016 in the R-trending parts of the state.
That said, one thing Democrats have found this year is that their voters are exhausted and just want to vote for whoever makes it out of the primary. This was a problem for them in #TX06 - lots of Dem voters assumed they could check out and pay attention during runoff.
Literally one month later, you had a direct D v R test in NM (where special election nominees are picked by party, not in primaries) and Ds got more of their vote out than Rs.
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