Another interesting but impossible to interpret question fro the IGM forum on "The current combination of US fiscal and monetary policy poses a serious risk of prolonged higher inflation."
What is "serious risk" and "prolonged higher inflation"?
igmchicago.org/surveys/overhe…
What is "serious risk" and "prolonged higher inflation"?
igmchicago.org/surveys/overhe…
Inflation was below the Fed's 2% target for a long time before this crisis. If it is 2% after this crisis that would be "prolonged higher inflation" but almost everyone would agree it was good. If this is what I thought should I answer yes or no to the question?
What if I think inflation will rise to 3% but that is a better rate than the 2% target? How should I answer the question?
Finally, a number of the people appear to disagree because they expect the Fed to follow a path that is different than what the Fed is currently saying it will do. (For the record, I fully expect the Fed not to do what it is currently saying it will do.)
Would love more quantitative questions from the IGM with numbers and probabilities.
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