Thread by @BambroughKevin

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg The only reason there will be redemptions is if a utility or large long term investor wants direct access to physical uranium and can’t get supply in the market.

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg For example. If a utility was having trouble sorting lbs in the market and couldn’t find supplies available they will likely be able to buy UPC and request to convert their shares to lbs at a facility.

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg In order to do this they would have to buy enough shares to equal 100k lbs and they would also have to have an account at an upc approved storage facility so that a book transfer could be legally made from upc to the fuel buyer

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg This process would likely also involve a redemption fee etc. I can’t imagine it occurring unless upc trades at larger than a 5 percent discount to the physical spot uranium market

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg It could also result from the futures market price being very high. If a utility is willing to pay a significant premium for 2023 or 2024 delivery in theory a trader could buy upc shares and then seek to sell a futures contract to the utility and make a spread

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg Again. To bother the premium or discount would have to be large. The most likely scenario is that all uranium traders will look to upc as a leading spot market indicator and the premium discount will stay tight. Demand volume will increase and more bullish investors will buy

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg Upc and the physical uranium price will move higher in tandem. The price action will create excitement for uranium stocks. Etfs and upc. All will attract capital and squeeze. The more fuel buyers / utilities see money pouring in the more likely they will feel compelled

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg To aggressive try to tie up their future needs via spot and the long term contract market.

I’ve done some basic calcs and the actual inventory numbers are so misleading. Utilities have very little coverage / price protection. The market will be lit on fire soon

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg The uranium world mistakingly calls the ‘fuel cycles working capital of uranium holdings’ as inventory. The fuel cycle from u308, uf6, enriched product, fabricated fuel, all needs to have a minimum inventory level just to function smoothly.

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg In the USA 5-6 mln u308 lbs needs to go in the front of the cycle likely 1.5 years ahead of coming out the back end as fabricated fuel. 18 months x 5-6 = 100mm lbs. less then that and things start getting tight. I think 12 months is a min for the fuel cycle and would be panic

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg Would be pure panic level. Say 12 months x 5-6 mln lbs. or 60-70 mln lbs of inventory. This would put everyone in a high risk. ‘Just in time situation’. I think that it won’t even be allowed to drop to that level.

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg If upc just added 100k lbs on average a day. 2mln lbs a month. With in 12 months that will be 24mln lbs and it will cause the price to break out over $150/lb. thing is it could happen much faster

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg If the price starts rising and it sparks gme / amc squeezer interest the market will go nuts. Fuel buyers will panic and increase purchases. Plus would be sellers will back off from the market. In this scenario the price of uranium will be gap up dollars somedays

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg There could be very high volume days in 3-6 months where upc is trying to buy a couple million lbs in a very tight market and the squeeze will be on.

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg The money pouring into the uranium etfs will also cause ‘blind buying of upc’. It will be a crazy volatile feedback loop. Uranium price spike attracts interest and money flow. People who know nothing about the market and care even less will double in funds.

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg The morons that are funding crypto shit to 1.5 trillion will pop in for a visit. The gme and amc nuts will jump on the trade too. I think we can squeeze to $200/lb easy when this gets going. Perhaps uranium 232 is as good a target as any. (Weapons grade).

@greentardscycle @mrfriebe @Big_U_Dawg No way anywhere near a $1bln can flow into physical uranium with out taking it to $200/lb. I think that inflation adjusted historical high will be a magnet. Plus we all know the inflation stats are bullshit so let’s just go with the weapons grade uranium 232. :)