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John Lichfield

9 Jun, 10 tweets, 2 min read

Weekly French Covid thread

The pandemic is now melting rapidly in France. The average number of cases is 6,109 a day (compared to 40,000 in April). The nationwide incidence rate is 68.6 – only just above the alert threshold of 50 (cases per 100,000 people/7days).
BUT…
1/10

The Delta variant threatens déjà vu all over again. It is now 75% of cases in UK (see chart). There is a worrying outbreak in Landes in the SW but so far Fr. spread is limited. New stats tomorrow. The hope is that vaccination has eroded the link between cases/severe illness 2/10

Jean-François Delfraissy, chairman of France’s scientific council, has tempted fate by saying Fr. could resist Delta better than UK because 80% of its jabs have been Pfizer - more effective v. the variant than AstraZeneca. On the other hand, UK has vaxxed many more people. 3/10

Today sees the beginning of the 3rd stage of France’s progressive shedding of 3rd wave restrictions. Restaurants and bars can serve limited numbers indoors. The curfew goes back to 11pm. Cinemas, theatres can take more people. The final stage of unlocking is 30 June. 4/10

So far (with Delta threatening) Macron’s decision to allow this 4-stage return to normal had been entirely vindicated. The earlier stages of unlocking have not slowed the ebbing of the pandemic as experts feared. Key covid numbers have fallen for the 7th week in a row. 5/10

The incidence rate – cases per 100,000 people/7 days – is under 68.66 nationwide, after 91 last week and 300+ in April. Paris is down to 80. The Nice area is 27.9. Patients in acute care - the metric most watched by govt – have fallen to 2,394. On 26 April, it was 6,001. 6/10

The daily average of new cases in last 7 days was 6,109, after 9,731 last week and 10,729 the week before that. Deaths have fallen to an average of 67.8 a day, after 111.8, 119.8, 157 and 221 in previous weeks. 7/10

The French vax drive is booming. By last night 28.6m people had been 1st-vaxxed and 14.3m completely covered (see table). The 2nd figure includes me. I received my 2nd AZ jab on Tues. At the present rate Fr. should hit its target of 30m 1st jabs by Saturday – 3 days early. 8/10

The fly in the ointment is variant B.1.617, 1st identified in India, now known as Delta. France has reported 54 clusters and 100+ cases. They include 21 in Ile-de-France and 10 in Auvergne-Rhône-Alpes but the outbreak worrying experts is in the Landes, south of Bordeaux. 9/10

Hang in there. 10/10

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More from @john_lichfield

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

5 Jun

Weekly French vaccination thread.
France had a record-smashing week after vaccination was opened to all over 18’s from Monday. More than 700,000 doses were given on each of the last 2 days – including a new high of 748,001 yesterday. 1/11

The French daily average was 560,394 – well ahead of the UK this week (485,000) and not far behind the best 600,000+ UK weeks in April.
Fr. remains far behind UK overall. UK, with roughly the same population, has given 40m 1st shots and 26.7m 2nd shots. Fr. 27.4m and 12m.
2/11

All the same, France is ahead of target to hit 30m 1st doses by 15 June. Over half - 52.3% - of French adults have received 1 dose. France – and the EU – got off to a slow start (partly thanks to failings of AstraZeneca) but they are now vaxxing at the UK rate or better.
3/11

Read 11 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

4 Jun

France is open for tourism from 9 June…
I’m slow with this but….Days after banning travel by non-resident Britons because of the Indian variant, France announced today that fully vaccinated Brits were welcome from next Wed, so long as they had recent negative Covid tests. 1/4

France is also opening up to fully-vaccinated visitors with recent negative tests from the US and many other nationalities – so-called “orange” countries. Vaccinated EU citizens (“green” countries) can travel to France without a test. 2/4

Tourism will not be allowed from 16 “red” countries such as India, SA and Brazil. British visitors who have had 2 jabs will be asked for a a negative PCR test no older than 72 hours or an antigen test no more than 48 hours old. Children can come with a negative test. 3/4

Read 4 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

2 Jun

Weekly French Covid thread

The 3rd wave of C19 is melting rapidly. Numbers in acute care are below 3,000 (the official target) for the 1st time since 24 Jan.
Will the Indian variant – still supposedly rare in France – spoil the party as the UK variant did 4 months ago?
1/7

Officially, France has 46 clusters and “around 100” cases of the Indian variant. But the govt admits that its capacity for identifying it is weak. Travellers from UK must now isolate for 7 days. Non-EU, non-residents cannot enter France from UK without overwhelming reason.
2/7

That worry apart (and it’s a genuine anxiety) France is doing just fine, Madame la Marquise. To all those (like me) who thought Pres. Macron had unlocked France too early: “we were wrong and Macron was right”.
Obviously, the French media is praising the President? Er, no.
3/7

Read 7 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

29 May

Weekly French vaccination thread.
The pace slackened this week because of the long holiday weekend. The daily average of jabs was 489,210, compared to 533,432 the previous week. All the same, France is 4 days ahead of the game to hit its target of 30m 1st doses by 15 June.
1/10

With all over-18’s eligible from Monday, and masses of Pfizer doses available, I expect records will be shattered next week. In each of the last 2 days, France gave over 680,000 jabs (a new high) – 80% of them Pfizer. Apart from 2nd shots, use of AstraZeneca is now minimal.
2/10

As of last night, France had given almost 25m first shots – including 2.4m in the last week. It is now first-jabbing at an average 349,447 a day. At that pace it will hit its 30m target on 11 June – 4 days early. Almost half of French adults (47.6%) have received one dose. 3/10

Read 10 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

15 May

Weekly French vaccination thread.
France may reach its target of 20 million first doses by the end of today. I say MAY. If it falls short, it will be by a few thousand jabs, which will be much closer than seemed possible even a week ago. 1/12

Both health minister Olivier Véran and Doctolib site predict France WILL hit the target after strenuous efforts in recent days. As of 7.30pm yesterday, 293,069 1st jabs were needed – far more than have ever been given on a French Saturday. But this may not be any Saturday 2/12

The last week saw huge efforts, such as relaxing age rules and keeping vaccinodromes open late, to deliver a politically important promise. Big numbers were jabbed even on Thursday’s hol (600,000+) and yesterday’s “pont” (weekend bridge) 598,639 incl. 437,620 1st jabs) 3/12

Read 12 tweets

John Lichfield

@john_lichfield

1 May

Weekly French vaccination thread.
It has been a good week – the best yet.
France broke its record on each of the last 2 days – 545,000 shots on Thurs and 549,000 yesterday – or almost 1.1m shots in 2 days.
In 7 days, 2.8m doses were given, after 2.5m a week for 2 weeks. 1/11

All the same, the Fr. government wants – and needs – to go faster to hit its medically and politically important targets of 20m first jabs by 15 May and 30m by 15 June. France’s problem has changed: no longer a shortage of doses but a shortage of people willing to be dosed. 2/11

There were over 200,000 vacant slots at the start of the week, some with 10 jabs each. This is partly because of resistance to AstraZeneca but also because of general French vax-scepticism. The problem is NOT huge. By my calculation 86% of doses had been used by this weekend 3/11

Read 11 tweets

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