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10 Jun, 4 tweets, 4 min read
And for context, here's our @Telegraph piece on COVID and care homes from April last year.

telegraph.co.uk/global-health/…
Plus the three outstanding @HealthFdn reports on social care and COVID-19 over the past year
From July 2020: 'Adult social care and COVID-19: Assessing the policy response in England so far'
@LucindaRAllen @hughalderwick @RichardnotatKF and Phoebe Dunn

health.org.uk/publications/r…
Next, also from July 2020 a deep-dive into the impact on social care staff & users
@SarahDeeny @KarenHodgePodge @fiona_grimm @Gummifot & Richard Brine

'Adult social care and COVID-19: Assessing the impact on social care users and staff in England so far'

health.org.uk/publications/r…
And finally, updating the policy narrative to March, 2021, it's @LucindaRAllen and colleagues back with more detailed analysis and interpretation:
'Adult social care and COVID-19 after the first wave: assessing the policy response in England'

health.org.uk/publications/r…

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More from @ADMBriggs

Adam Briggs Profile picture
10 Jun
Latest @PHE_uk surveillance report is here, covering 31st May to 6th June.

- Case rates & positivity (% of tests that are positive)⬆️
- Number of individuals tested ⬇️(partly due to half term).

And case rates now ⬆️⬆️ among 20-29y/os.

🧵for detail

gov.uk/government/sta… ImageImageImage
Looking by region, the uptick in case rates among 20-29y/o is really marked across multiple regions.

Why?
- combination of social mixing, less vax coverage, more transmissible virus
- much harder to discern from these data about possible role of cases in children moving up ages Image
And worth also noting that as testing rates aren't rising, positivity is. Particularly among younger children (note again, half term), and 20-29yrs.

See also the symptom data. ImageImage
Read 15 tweets
Adam Briggs Profile picture
27 May
The weekly @PHE_uk surveillance report has just been published - 17th-23rd May. 🧵

- PCR positivity beginning to creep up
- BIG differences in case rates by age, region, ethnicity, and deprivation

gov.uk/government/sta…
While nationally, PCR positivity had been around 0.75% for the previous four weeks, it's crept up this week.

Now 0.87% in the most recent week.
The regional/age split tells its own story with increasing case rates among 10-19y/o and other younger age groups, particularly in parts of N and East Mids.

Although also concerning early signal in parts of N and Mids in those aged 60+ (the heat map is for NW).
Read 15 tweets
Adam Briggs Profile picture
13 May
This week's T&T data - covers 29/4-05/05

🧵tl,dr:
- fewer LFDs
- fewer cases
- fewer contacts reached and it's taking longer, plus what might be the role of international cases
- and why this is the last update to our @HealthFdn performance tracker.

gov.uk/government/pub…
Firstly on the TT data.

Number of people tested is down this week by 7% to 4.61m, with number of positive cases also down 9% to 14,313.
The drop in people tested is again due to changes in the use of rapid LFD tests for people without symptoms, rather than changes to PCR test use.

And nearly 2/3 of the fall is due to less reported secondary school testing.
Read 17 tweets
Adam Briggs Profile picture
13 May
Short thread on today's PHE Surveillance Report, covers 3rd-9th May.🧵

Shows very similar case rates to previous weeks, but with some clear divergence for 10-19y/os, and for parts of East mids, NW, and Yorkshire/Humber.

gov.uk/government/sta…
Furthermore, the significant increases in case rates in some parts of the country continues to raise concerns about potential community spread of variants of concern such as VOC-21APR-02 (first identified in India) among the very places already most impacted by the pandemic.
In the most recent week, case rates in Bolton have doubled from 85 per 100,000 to 188 per 100,000, for Blackburn with Darwen they've doubled to 107/100,000.
Read 8 tweets
Adam Briggs Profile picture
13 May
Latest REACT study shows that case rates between 15th April and 3rd May (round 11) fell by 50% compared with 11th - 30th March (round 10), from 0.20% to 0.10%

Differences by age, region, ethnicity and deprivation remain (with large uncertainty). short 🧵

imperial.ac.uk/medicine/resea…
*Note very wide uncertainty intervals as case rates fall*

In general, highest rates estimated in West Mids and London, and likely falls in all ages except 25-34y/o.

ONS survey tomorrow will update on this.
See the adjusted results showing general trend for higher case rates in bigger households, more deprived and Asian ethnicity - esp with higher viral loads (right hand column).

Again - big uncertainty but consistent with everything else we see with COVID and inequalities.
Read 4 tweets
Adam Briggs Profile picture
6 May
Latest T&T data: wk 22-28 April

- no big shifts in numbers tested by LFDs/PCR, and ongoing fall in +ve cases

- but some interesting changes in contact tracing: fewer contacts reached and it's taking longer, and the reasons aren't straightforward🧵

gov.uk/government/pub…
While the number of cases transferred to contact tracing fell by 12% to 10,793, the number of close contacts identified rose by 2% to 49,151.

For the first time since the start of August, avg contacts per case was >5.
And of those contacts, the percentage reached has dropped wk on wk for the past 5 weeks, from 90% to 84%.
Read 15 tweets

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