Latest @PHE_uk surveillance report is here, covering 31st May to 6th June.

- Case rates & positivity (% of tests that are positive)⬆️
- Number of individuals tested ⬇️(partly due to half term).

And case rates now ⬆️⬆️ among 20-29y/os.

🧵for detail…
Looking by region, the uptick in case rates among 20-29y/o is really marked across multiple regions.

- combination of social mixing, less vax coverage, more transmissible virus
- much harder to discern from these data about possible role of cases in children moving up ages
And worth also noting that as testing rates aren't rising, positivity is. Particularly among younger children (note again, half term), and 20-29yrs.

See also the symptom data.
The pattern by age is not yet seen in the ONS data, although that's only to 29th May, with next update due tomorrow. Plus note v wide confidence intervals here.…
The regional differences in case rates are as clear as they've ever been (and Cornwall's looking increasingly like a good choice for G7 - from a COVID perspective at least...)
Differences by ethnicity and deprivation remain apparent as cases rise again.

The same population groups yet again impacted most. except interesting pattern in 17-19yo, perhaps an indication of less deprived 17-19yo more likely in school/college/uni and therefore exposed?
For notified outbreaks to PHE health protection teams.

Still great to see v low for care homes and hospitals
And over half term, number of reported outbreaks in schools is same as previous week. Will be interesting to see if trends upwards as schools go back.

(note, this isn't ALL school outbreaks, only those reported to PHE, so the chart is helpful for trends but not overall picture)
When it comes to hospitalisations and ICU admissions, these are definitely trending up.

The trajectory of this peak and the overall eventual impact on NHS capacity (and deaths) still seems v uncertain. Not to mention the impact of long COVID.
Deaths are remarkably low.

There's a 3-4wk lag b/w infections & death. No signal yet, fingers crossed it stays that way.

But if more (particularly older) people do get infected, it'll lead to some deaths among those w/o vax or who don't respond to vax.
The scale of this is really uncertain, but one thing for sure is that the impact on deaths will be far lower than it would have been w/o vax roll-out.
And on that, it's still charging forward with over 90% of everyone over 70yrs having had 2 jabs, as well as >55% of adults overall.🙌
But if the ethnicity data are still frankly shocking.

Not only are people from minority ethnic groups more likely to get COVID and have worse outcomes, but they're now less likely to be protected.

Despite the rollout to <30s, there is still loads to do among older adults.
I'm sure this all means different things to different people.

For me, there's big regional variation but overall, case-rates are rising exponentially with hospitals now seeing cases.

Meet outdoors where possible, wear a mask where necessary, test, and get vax when offered.🙏

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More from @ADMBriggs

10 Jun
And for context, here's our @Telegraph piece on COVID and care homes from April last year.…
Plus the three outstanding @HealthFdn reports on social care and COVID-19 over the past year
From July 2020: 'Adult social care and COVID-19: Assessing the policy response in England so far'
@LucindaRAllen @hughalderwick @RichardnotatKF and Phoebe Dunn…
Next, also from July 2020 a deep-dive into the impact on social care staff & users
@SarahDeeny @KarenHodgePodge @fiona_grimm @Gummifot & Richard Brine

'Adult social care and COVID-19: Assessing the impact on social care users and staff in England so far'…
Read 4 tweets
27 May
The weekly @PHE_uk surveillance report has just been published - 17th-23rd May. 🧵

- PCR positivity beginning to creep up
- BIG differences in case rates by age, region, ethnicity, and deprivation…
While nationally, PCR positivity had been around 0.75% for the previous four weeks, it's crept up this week.

Now 0.87% in the most recent week.
The regional/age split tells its own story with increasing case rates among 10-19y/o and other younger age groups, particularly in parts of N and East Mids.

Although also concerning early signal in parts of N and Mids in those aged 60+ (the heat map is for NW).
Read 15 tweets
13 May
This week's T&T data - covers 29/4-05/05

- fewer LFDs
- fewer cases
- fewer contacts reached and it's taking longer, plus what might be the role of international cases
- and why this is the last update to our @HealthFdn performance tracker.…
Firstly on the TT data.

Number of people tested is down this week by 7% to 4.61m, with number of positive cases also down 9% to 14,313.
The drop in people tested is again due to changes in the use of rapid LFD tests for people without symptoms, rather than changes to PCR test use.

And nearly 2/3 of the fall is due to less reported secondary school testing.
Read 17 tweets
13 May
Short thread on today's PHE Surveillance Report, covers 3rd-9th May.🧵

Shows very similar case rates to previous weeks, but with some clear divergence for 10-19y/os, and for parts of East mids, NW, and Yorkshire/Humber.…
Furthermore, the significant increases in case rates in some parts of the country continues to raise concerns about potential community spread of variants of concern such as VOC-21APR-02 (first identified in India) among the very places already most impacted by the pandemic.
In the most recent week, case rates in Bolton have doubled from 85 per 100,000 to 188 per 100,000, for Blackburn with Darwen they've doubled to 107/100,000.
Read 8 tweets
13 May
Latest REACT study shows that case rates between 15th April and 3rd May (round 11) fell by 50% compared with 11th - 30th March (round 10), from 0.20% to 0.10%

Differences by age, region, ethnicity and deprivation remain (with large uncertainty). short 🧵…
*Note very wide uncertainty intervals as case rates fall*

In general, highest rates estimated in West Mids and London, and likely falls in all ages except 25-34y/o.

ONS survey tomorrow will update on this.
See the adjusted results showing general trend for higher case rates in bigger households, more deprived and Asian ethnicity - esp with higher viral loads (right hand column).

Again - big uncertainty but consistent with everything else we see with COVID and inequalities.
Read 4 tweets
6 May
Latest T&T data: wk 22-28 April

- no big shifts in numbers tested by LFDs/PCR, and ongoing fall in +ve cases

- but some interesting changes in contact tracing: fewer contacts reached and it's taking longer, and the reasons aren't straightforward🧵…
While the number of cases transferred to contact tracing fell by 12% to 10,793, the number of close contacts identified rose by 2% to 49,151.

For the first time since the start of August, avg contacts per case was >5.
And of those contacts, the percentage reached has dropped wk on wk for the past 5 weeks, from 90% to 84%.
Read 15 tweets

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