1) I spoke with the China-focused portfolio manager of a $90bn AUM fund.
Mike Tian of WCM thinks Chinese tech who focuses on asset and operationally heavy businesses are more attractive investments then than asset-light businesses.
Counterintuitive, but here's why:
2) The conventional thinking is for internet companies to be 'Light': asset-light, people light, outsource all the ‘grunt work’ to the ecosystem, focus on ‘platform’, earn high margins and high returns on capital.
Mike thinks this might be a mistake
3) With heavier operational and asset business, while the initial outlay is higher, there’s also a chance of cultivating a wider moat. Especially true in China as big internet businesses are cross-vertical ecosystems, and barriers of entry for light businesses are very low.
4) In hyper-competitive China, every ‘Light’ business can go from a product to a feature, just like Livestreaming.
However, as Mike points out, barring technology disruption or significant regulatory change, this is not the case for food delivery or home brokerage.
5) Meituan is famed for its field execution. Beike, the real estate platform have their own directly managed stores with 30-40K operational people involving in management of their franchised model (aka Agent Cooperation Network)
6) Even a large reason for Douyin’s success is its heavy on the ground team to cultivate influencers, designing viral dance moves, etc. These capabilities sound easy, but Tencent/Kuaishou still haven’t been able to replicate in style
7) The playbook is to use 'Heavy' sectors as a loss leader wedge to cut into 'Light' sectors with better margins. Meituan did this with hotel booking and overtook Ctrip. Mike thinks 'Heavy' businesses should not lose their competitive advantages in pursuit of 'Light' businesses
8) The 'Light' margins are a byproduct of the 'Heavy' business units. In fact, going from 'Heavy' to another 'Heavy' vertical might be a smart way to further build the moat.
However, being a 'Heavy' business is a mindset and corporate culture.
9) The Chinese internet is becoming 'Heavier'. You see this in almost every vertical. Mike's advice to both Western and Chinese internet companies would be 'Embrace heaviness. Use it to create better customer experiences and competitive differentiation.’
10) In terms of the mindset differences between 'Light' v 'Heavy' businesses. It’s the difference in a world view where one focuses on framing problems in terms of software and the other embraces the burden of an operationally complex organization
11) Heavy businesses are still engineering-focused, but they also realize that customer value depends on controlling the entire ‘end to end experience’.
For Mike, operational expertise is a source of competitive differentiation and a source of value creation in its own right.
12) In China internet, this 'Heavy' mindset is prominent in companies like Meituan, JD, and Beike.
Sometimes, the culture is not created deliberately, but rather because of past experience and history.
13) Success for 'Heavy' platforms comes from consistently executing on small things. None of it is really rocket science, but it’s not easy to create that consistency across thousands of supplier and customer touchpoints.
14) Do this consistently, one can build brand reputation and hard moat sources around CAC, customer loyalty, supplier network, scale efficiency
15) 'Heavy' businesses don’t think of business as simply a ‘software problem’ that can be solved with good UX, algorithms and plenty of traffic.
They realise it’s more complicated than that.
16) WCM is recruiting a generalist China analyst for their team. If you are passionate about doing deep fundamental research in China and want to do it as a part of a tight-knit, collaborative, and slightly irreverent team - go here linkedin.com/jobs/view/2395…
1) Let's talk about how the business models of Chinese edtech unicorns Zuoyebang (作业帮), Yuanfudao (猿辅导) and VIPKids were such a success and completed billions in fundraise and hired thousands in 2020 alone.
And also how the methods of their success came back to bite them.
2) There's a whiff of old wine in new bottles with these tech platforms, the B2C business model boils down to paid packages for K12 online lessons with brand name teachers. Covid accelerated homeschooling for these to become a hot 2020 fengkou.
3) The offering (numbers from GSX) there's a trial package for 49 RMB which includes a lecture with a teacher typically from a brand name school and scores of teaching accolades. Followed by 1-to-1 tutoring to go over specific points with the student.
1) Let's talk about the history of JD.com and its complicated founder Richard Liu - a man who grew up in poverty and arrived in Beijing with 76 eggs.
Today JD.com is worth $110bn and has 3 successful spinouts to its name.
2) Growing up in a small village Jiangsu, Liu had no stable electricity or running water. Meat was a treat served on special occasions, and his grandmother would bribe the butchers with peanuts for a fattier cut each year.
3) In middle school, he took his entire savings of 50 RMB and went to Nanjing by way of Xuzhou. In Nanjing he saw the Jinling Mansion Hotel, a 37-story building, the tallest he had ever seen.
He realised there was an entire world outside of Suqian and he wanted to see it.
1) Let's talk about a growth hack that Chinese apps use to get those eye-watering DAU and user numbers.
It's 地推 aka field sales but not as we know it. An entire ecosystem springs up to take advantage of sign-up subsidies to hook some bargain hunting users.
2) While chillin' with @passluo today in Chengdu, we were approached by university students who asked us whether we had Kuaishou Express app. If we downloaded the app, the students earn 8 RMB / $1.25.
We Pass'ed...hoho
Pass proceeded to school me on how app sign-ups are done
3) Turns out consumer apps will have 'co-operation partners agreement' with 3P companies when they are pushing out new apps. For every new user that signs up, these companies get a fee ranging from 50 RMB - 10 RMB / $7 - $1.5(depending on the app and region)
1) Let's talk about Bytedance's product offerings and what that means for their future.
I went down a rabbit hole and this is what I've got on them after a few hours of googling. ~50 active apps and offerings.
2) A few things stand out, Bytedance lives up to their nickname of being a super app factory. But it's also surprising that they've made a number of acquisitions as well.
They seem increasingly focused on verticals esp edtech, B2B and potentially healthcare
3) They have been buying more community apps than building them. Does this mean their flagship algo is more suitable for centralised content delivery versus delocalised community content?
Or maybe scaling community is just very hard?
1) Let's talk about the international investment strategy of Tencent and Alibaba (and how this differs from their domestic strategy).
Both are kingmakers in the Chinese ecosystem as they bring value-add. But how does this translate once they turn towards international markets?
2) Domestically, Tencent and Alibaba are tier 1 investors in the Chinese VC system. What they bring to the table is traffic in the form of being allowed access to closed garden ecosystems.
Non-Tencent invested companies (aka Douyin) are cut off from sending links on wechat.
3) They are still 'strategic investors' at the end of the day, and similar to CVCs of the West, investment decisions will involve both financial and strategic considerations.
Their investment decisions will typically involve input from both business units and the investments.
1) Let's talk about how Taobao (of Alibaba) approaches selling apparel in different way to Amazon (and why I think its better).
It's a mix of product design which mirrors the shopping experience, sophisticated AI recommendations and superior customer service (even to Amazon)
2) Amazon has a product philosophy of selling based around SKUs and high intent search. When I open the app and search for items, I often wouldn't see the same item twice. As the sellers are all aggregated around the same product SKUs.
The platform is geared towards utility.
3) Taobao's designs reflect an understanding that apparel (especially non-basic clothing) is around mimetic desire.
Their search pages will often show the very similar items sold by different shops in lifestyle photo spreads. It's also highly tailored to your previous browsing