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Michael McFaul Profile picture
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30 Apr, 5 tweets, 1 min read
Why has Putin and his autocratic regime become so much more repressive at home in recent weeks? Why is Putin becoming so increasingly paranoid? THREAD 1/
And Putin is not de-escalating or seeking to stabilize relations with the West, but debilitating the work of the US embassy in Russia and adding more EU officials to the Russian sanctions list? Why? Why now? 2/
Is this really the best moment for a Biden-Putin summit? The mere event of a meeting is a win for Putin, but what does Biden or the American people get out of it? If the promise of a future summit was supposed to modify Putin's bad behavior, that strategy is not working. 3/
Summits must seek to advance concrete American national interests. What will those be in June? I'm having a hard time thinking of even small items on a list of deliverables. (Obama pulled down his planned Putin summit in 2013 because of a lack of deliverables & Snowden) 4/
Maybe better to wait a bit? Or downgrade as a pull-aside at some multilateral meeting instead. Stand-alone summits amp up expectations. & Biden doesn't want to be seen as rewarding or ignoring Putin's new bad behavior. & right now, it's bad and getting worse. 5/ END THREAD

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More from @McFaul

Michael McFaul Profile picture
26 Apr
In 2011, US-Russia relations were cooperative. Obama and Biden had signed the New START Treaty, imposed new sanctions on Iran, vastly expanded NDN, worked together to get Russia into the WTO, expanded trade & investment, negotiated a new visa regime... THREAD 1/
Most amazingly, Medvedev abstained on UNSCR 1970 & 1973 authorizing the use of force in Libya. At the time, solid majorities in both countries had a positive view of the country. 2/
In 2012, U.S.-Russia relations became quickly uncooperative, punctuated by the closing of USAID in Russia, Snowden asylum, annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russian intervention in Syria, interference in U.S. 2016 presidential election, etc. 3/
Read 8 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
10 Apr
"Building a secure, prosperous, and democratic Ukraine, even if parts of the country remain under Russian occupation, is the best way to counter Moscow’s ideological and military aggression in Europe." THREAD 1/
A successful, democratic Ukraine will inspire new democratic possibilities inside Russia and other former Soviet republics—just as a failed Ukrainian democracy and economy will serve Putin’s narrative about the futility of revolutions allegedly sponsored by the United States. 2/
The Biden administration should therefore increase U.S. military, political, and economic support for Ukraine to help its stalled reform efforts succeed. 3/
Read 6 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
23 Mar
Looking forward to discussing my ideas for reform for U.S. (1) diplomacy, (2) democracy promotion, and (2) USG media, information & public diplomacy efforts on Mar. 25th . Sign up here. americanpurpose.com/events/mar-25-… THREAD 1/
Here's the essay on U.S. diplomatic renewal. 2/ americanpurpose.com/articles/dress…
Here's the essay on democracy promotion . americanpurpose.com/articles/somet… 3/
Read 4 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
17 Mar
"The Cold War analogy distorts, more than illuminates, dynamics in US-China relations today." THREAD 1/
Advocates for a new Cold War w/ China underplay the costs and mistakes of the actual Cold War—a tragic era that resulted in millions of deaths, including tens of thousands of Americans, support for autocracies in both the East & West, and billions of dollars spent inefficiently.
This new hegemonic paradigm also forgets (whether consciously or unconsciously) that containment was not a single, consistent US strategy but stretched to mean everything from détente with Kremlin communists to rolling back communism around the developing world. 3/
Read 10 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
5 Mar
In dealing with China today, US leaders should emulate successes & avoid mistakes from the Cold War. THREAD 1/

"American leaders must learn another lesson of the Cold War—détente with a communist regime also will not end confrontation or produce permanent cooperation."
"They tried that approach in the 1970s, and it didn’t work. ...The United States cannot end its great power ideological rivalry with China anytime soon. Instead, it must be managed." 2/
"That leaves only a third, complicated, nuanced path—a patient mix of sustained confrontation and cooperation, containment and engagement, isolation and integration." 3/
Read 8 tweets
Michael McFaul Profile picture
1 Mar
I wrote this in 2009: "To pretend that the status quo [in the Middle East] can be maintained is wishful thinking. The real question is not whether existing political institutions will change, but how they will change." THREAD 1/
"Will the process of political change be evolutionary , as were the transitions from authoritarian rule to democracy in southern Europe in the 1970s or revolutionary, as in the case from the transition from monarchy to theocracy in Iran after 1979?" 2/
"Assuming that the configuration of autocratic regimes in place today will persist 50 years from now is much more naive than believing that some of these regimes might succeed in making the transition to democracy." 3/
Read 5 tweets

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