Thread by @McFaul

In 2011, US-Russia relations were cooperative. Obama and Biden had signed the New START Treaty, imposed new sanctions on Iran, vastly expanded NDN, worked together to get Russia into the WTO, expanded trade & investment, negotiated a new visa regime... THREAD 1/

Most amazingly, Medvedev abstained on UNSCR 1970 & 1973 authorizing the use of force in Libya. At the time, solid majorities in both countries had a positive view of the country. 2/

In 2012, U.S.-Russia relations became quickly uncooperative, punctuated by the closing of USAID in Russia, Snowden asylum, annexation of Crimea in 2014, Russian intervention in Syria, interference in U.S. 2016 presidential election, etc. 3/

Between 2011 and 2012, the balance of power between the US & Russia did not change, regimes did not change, leadership in the US did not change. Only one thing changed -- leadership in the Kremlin. Putin returned as president. 4/

That's about as close to a "natural experiment" as you can get for tracing the causal role of individuals in foreign policy. 5/

PS One other variable intervened in 2011-2012-- massive protests against Putin inside Russia. Putin's response to those demonstrations had a direct impact on US-Russia relations, as he blamed the US for fomenting revolution. 6/

Tell me what's missing from my explanation? Eager to consider other explanations. 7/

For a deeper diver into the details, read "Putin, Putinism, and the Domestic Determinants of Russian Foreign Policy."
@Journal_IS direct.mit.edu/isec/article/4…