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BɅRTON Profile picture
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10 Jun, 4 tweets, 1 min read
Thursdays will be the day of the week to see the biggest rise in RRP balance.

We are going to see $25+Bn increase today. Wait for it.
This trend should continue into the week of June 29th, when Tuesdays would have a chance to exceed Thursdays (according to Treasury's current pattern).
$32Bn RRP balance increase today, like clockwork

But.. RRP is still lagging behind the reserve injection by a little bit. Image
We will see a $9.8Bn increase in Fed's B/S today after the close.

A boring H.4.1 release otherwise.

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More from @Barton_options

BɅRTON Profile picture
9 Jun
Bot 2-year worth of fish oil today at Costco to hedge against the Japanese release of Tritium-rich Fukushima waste water into the Pacific.

Data and reasoning in a blog post later..
fish oil in the shop today is probably made 2-3 months ago from salmons caught 4-5 months ago... so it's still relatively safe.

after 2-3 years, the released tritium should be spread over the world, either being diluted enough to be safe, and/or there is nowhere to hide anyway
fish oil gets oxidized (bad for your health) over time at room temperature.

freezing it should slow down the oxidation process by a lot. so they are going into the freezer now.
Read 8 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
2 Jun
$AMC high so far was near $73 because that was where the highest strike was this morning.
if all the calls were ITM, there is nothing left to squeeze.

All that is left is to take profits.
a hour ago, a MM started to offer strikes up to $120.

If sufficient OTM calls are bot there in the afternoon (need to be in large quantities to exceed existing ITM call OI), there is room to go up.

Otherwise, profit-taking time (meaning AMC stalling then grinding down)
Read 4 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
24 May
2020 SOMA annual report is worth the wait!!!

so good
These people's productivity increased by 200% once they started to work from home . 🤣
There is a covert Operation Twist hidden here. Will explain how it works and the magnitude of it in a fed.tips article hopefully this weekend.
Read 6 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
17 May
70% chance that we are going to see another wave of COVID in parts of US in mid June through late July.

1. we are importing the Indian variant at full speed.
5 direct flights a day are still operating (4x UAL: DEL-EWR/SFO/ORD and BOM-EWR; 1x AIC: DEL-EWR) ImageImage
The "travel ban" only applies to non-US residents.

Even newly admitted Indian students seem to be waived from the ban:

timesofindia.indiatimes.com/world/us/quali…
2. Infection rate of COVID is currently sky high in India: 50% of Australians on the Australia repatriation flight from India last Friday were denied boarding, because of +ve COVID tests or acute exposure.

reuters.com/world/asia-pac…
Read 12 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
12 May
Hey Twitter, I am back, and SICO seems to be back too!

Analysis and projection here: fed.tips/outlook2021051…
I had to take more days off per doctor's orders last weekend. :( But largely recovered now.

There are a ton to write about with all the new data.

so expect daily notes (a blend of premium and free articles) on fed.tips in the next couple of weeks.
The point of this chart is that we are in a $460Bn-forced-feeding period (ending tomorrow), which is finally causing "indigestion" problems and forced deleveraging (it seems).
Read 4 tweets
BɅRTON Profile picture
7 May
Details emerged from Treasury's refunding meeting this week has been quite surprising and inconsistent. The implication for stonks for the next 4-5 months could be surprising as well.

Treasury declared its TGA target for July 31st at $450Bn, while slowing down T-bill reduction.
Plugging in the current USG spending model along with EOQ TGA target of $800Bn, I ended up with this:

Not much spending until July when TGA nose-dives from $950Bn to $450Bn in 4 weeks.
A few things have happened in the past 2 weeks.
1. Tax receipts have been very strong (the economy is almost overheating from payroll data)
2. Stimulus spending has dropped to almost nothing.
3. Treasury's TGA reduction plan will have to change course in July as a result
Read 5 tweets

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