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HMK alias MANOJ Profile picture
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12 Jun, 4 tweets, 2 min read
#FreeTip
A simple illustration to analyse stocks in a very simple way:
1) Prepare a list of stocks with more than say, 400% returns last 1 year and currently above 3 digits. U will have around 30-40 NSE listed stocks.
2) Look at each stock chart just before breakout
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3) Take a note book and right down against each stock, the behaviour of MAs Vis a vis the stock, for eg., 30 week MA / daily 200 ma / 150 ma, 50 ma, etc.); the behaviour of Relative Strength (RS); behaviour in terms of volume; any pattern like rectangular breakout etc.
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4) Might take 3 plus hours for the above exercise. Once you are done, see the common elements against all stocks. That is the edge you have knowing the behaviour of super performance stocks. U need not hold for 400%. U can atleast get 20% out of it.
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5) A eg. is -- few of the stocks had 3 year rectangular breakouts with RS at new high / 52w high. This is just an example. Dont immediately look for only this criteria. I can help you out with a list of triple digit stocks in excess of 400% over last 1 year.
GoodLuck.

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HMK alias MANOJ Profile picture
12 Jun
#FreeTip
The math to do before entering trading:
1) Capital Rs 10 lacs
2) Risk per stock as a % of capital :1.25%, ie Rs 12.5k
3) Per stock max allocation: 12.5%, ie Rs 1.25L
4) Risk per stock as a % of position: Max 8%-10%, ie 12.5k
5) RR - 10%:20% , 1:2 , 12.5k : 25k
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6) No. of trades likely during the year : 100
7) Win % : 40%, ie 40 trades
8) Projected End capital : 10L x (1+0.20)^(40) x (1-0.10)^(60) = 26 lacs, ie 164% return
It doesn’t mean that u will necessarily reach the end capital ; U will know if your activity ...
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during trading is statistically feasible. For Eg, during trading u observe that u are getting 1:1.5 RR and not 1:2, then , the above calc leads to -52%; U get to know your activity is economically not feasible. For Eg, u observe after a few trades that your win % is ...
Read 4 tweets
HMK alias MANOJ Profile picture
5 Sep 20
#Reality Market does not know resistances and supports in any form, like MA, pivots, fib, gann, MP,....; Market is only a flow of orders; An order in a terminal has two sides bid - ask; If ask side is taken out rightly without negotiation, it is bullish for that ....
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moment. If bid side is given out rightly without negotiation, it is bearish for that moment. An extending bullish moment has intermediate bearish moments and vice versa. Sometimes bid side orders are way higher than ask side orders. This does not necessarily mean bullish....
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A big trader who wants to buy will never negotiate. Orders of true bulls predominantly are not on bid side. These are orders that use Market orders to suck the ask price. Same logic goes with true bears.
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Read 8 tweets
HMK alias MANOJ Profile picture
29 Aug 20
#Research
#Stat
#Banknifty From Mar 2010 to Jan 2019
A) Open to Close abs %.
No. of trading days 2160
No. of days open to close > 1% = 750 (35%)
No. of days open to close > 2% = 247 (11.5%)
No. of days open to close > 3% = 58 (2.7%)
No. of days open to close > 4% = 13 (0.60%)
..
......
No. of days open to close > 5% = 4 (0.20%)
No. of days open to close > 6% = 2 (0.09%)
No. of days open to close > 7% = 0 (0%)
% is absolute of + / -, ie can be either up or down.
So essentially at the minimum one should ideally trade only 35% of the times intraday...
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B) CPR width Vs Trend
During 1% move, ie 750 times, 38% times (288 dys) CPR width was < 0.68 times 20 day average; Out of 288 dys, 89% (255 dys), PDR was < 2%.
During 2% move, ie 247 times, 37% times (92 dys) CPR width was < 0.68 times 20 day average.
....
Read 6 tweets
HMK alias MANOJ Profile picture
28 Aug 20
#Research
From Jan 1 till date - BNF
1) Total trading days 160
2) Open to Close of the day :
a) in excess of 100 points - 60 times
b) in excess of 200 points - 48 times
c) in excess of 300 points - 37 times
d) in excess of 400 points - 27 times
..
e) in excess of 500 points - 17 times
f) in excess of 600 points - 13 times
g) in excess of 700 points - 10 times
h) in excess of 800 points - 8 times
i) in excess of 900 points - 7 times
f) in excess of 1000 points - 4 times
g) in excess of 1500 points - 2 times
h) in excess of 2000 points - 1 time
In other words if a trending market is defined in terms of open to close difference of 100 points plus in BNF, 60 / 160 days , ie 37.5% dys market trended; if definition is changed as 200 points plus, 48/160 days , ie 30% dys market trended.
Read 5 tweets
HMK alias MANOJ Profile picture
15 Aug 20
#Learning
Why Options is riskier than Futures?

Let us take an eg of Nifty futures at 11000 and an equivalent OTM 11300 call with a delta of 0.33 and OTM put 10700 assuming a delta of -0.33.

It might appear that selling futures at 11000 (delta -1) technically equals....
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selling 3 OTM 11300 calls (delta -0.33 X 3 = -0.99), at for eg 150.

Now let us assume futures moved up by 100. The percentage loss is 0.91%.
The price of the OTM calls is likely to go by 0.33 X 100, ie 33, meaning it will be at 188. The percentage loss is 25.3%.
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2) When you are selling 1 lot fut (delta -1) you require approx Rs 1.4 lacs per lot margin. For selling one lot of OTM call (delta -0.33), approx you require Rs 1.2 lacs per lot. So for 3 OTM call sell (delta -1), u require Rs 3.6 lacs, way higher than a similar delta futures..
Read 7 tweets
HMK alias MANOJ Profile picture
14 Aug 20
#Learning
How to arrive at the equity market exposure (equity trading / investments)?
1) Expected Return :
Exp return = Risk Free return + Beta (Equity risk Premium)
Risk free return = 6% (10 year GSec yield)
Beta = Measure of the risk of you exposure vis a vis the broader mkt
.
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Since your exposure is in equity, beta can be kept as 1 if your strategy limits only to large caps; however if your strategy includes also mid / small caps / fno stocks, the actual beta will increase.....
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Statistically, beta = covariance (broader index daily return, average of large/mid/smallcap/fno daily return) / Variance or broader market return. (Can be easily computed in excel if you have the underlying data).
I am assuming a beta of 2 on an average for this tweet....
Read 7 tweets

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