Discover and read the best of Twitter Threads about #Banknifty

Most recents (24)

Global Markets this week: Comfort from developed markets is no tailwind cheer for India!

US Presidential election gets near, and rally in US equities & Gilts gets bigger!

NASDAQ leads the show with upside break at 10350-11000 (high 11126) building steam for 11850-12350...1/N
S&P500 bounce from 2950-3000 hit target 3350-3400 (high 3353) and set for new high above 3393 towards 3650-4000.

DJIA is into catch-up act inching up from 26500-26650 to over 27100 with pull bias towards all-time high 29568.

Last mile uptrend intact & into extended one...2/N
When post-Covid outlook was for hold between 2019 close & Feb’20 high, US equities punching new highs is extraordinary, and prudent to be on chase with trail stop of 3-5% correction from the peak.

Combination of more stimulus & FED Fund rate around 0% keeps undertone good...3/N
Read 15 tweets
Major take-away from 6th August @RBI Monetary policy review:

(a) Despite being accomodative, effective policy rate is not away from the bottom - can’t push deposit rates down any further

(b) No issue on liquidity infusion, but large reverse flow in R/R counter is worry...1/N
(c) Concerned poor credit growth in banking sector, hence special dispensation for Gold loans increasing LTV from 75% to 90%

(d) Unable to fix a number on FY21 GDP contraction despite seeing downside risks

(e) Mixed outlook on headline CPI inflation, extended rate pause...2/N
(e) Positive from announcement of one-time resolution, providing relief to borrowers and Banks, but not sure at this stage on the extent of relief to both parties

(f) Not providing “free-for-all” kind of resolution on moratorium book is positive, but cost of this is high...3/N
Read 11 tweets
What’s this week in Global markets when growth in tumbling mode?

Growth contraction in H1/2020 is to expectation despite being severe, but recoup momentum is not yet visible when worst of C-19 is not yet behind, while hope remains on launch of vaccines before end of 2020...1/N
FED & other G7 Central Banks continue to support equities to prevent collapse & set up of pessimism on the real economy! Positive take-away for EMs & rest of the world is from combination of easing US Treasury yields and weak USD, not withstanding firm Gold and Brent Crude...2/N
NASDAQ lead US equities with play above 10350 (keeping base 10000 away) but lack steam to punch new high over 10839, and good for consolidation at 10350-10850 retaining positive undertone while S&P500 hold sideways play at 3130-3390 & managing hold above midpoint 3260...3/N
Read 15 tweets
What happened to Holy Grail Trade in March 2020 crash?
Biggest Blackswan crash vs Naked Put. This is the biggest ques. in the mind of every Option seller as well as buyer. Here are some answers that will amaze you. #banknifty #nifty50 #expiry #OptionsTrading
HolyGrail strategy use data of last 10yrs to conclude that crash below certain level in #Nifty50 is extremely rare but a continuous put selling (more then 10% away) can give consistent earning of 24-30% per year. Stop Loss says to exit if PE sold go ITM by EOD.
HolyGrail strategy compete with Stock Portfolios, Mutual funds & FD like longterm investment, where you spend negligible time managing the position. It should not be compared with regular Option strategies with regular adjustments, though it claim to beat them all in long run.
Read 10 tweets
What’s this week in global financial markets in the final lap of July?

Global equities in slippery track on elevated terrain with sell-on-recovery urge, Treasury yields down from safe haven & dovish outlook, USD beaten down below big picture and Gold in unrelenting mode...1/N
It’s not the time to give up when pump-priming fiscal stimulus is not yet over, high probability of FED moving policy rate to sub 0% and positive outcome on C-19 vaccines; on the downside, yet to get grip on C-19 impact on economy, livelihood and lives, still in the dark...2/N
NASDAQ losing steam at 9850/10000-10850/11000 (post high punch 10839) is fine while finding comfort at 10058-10503 and S&P500 in comfort mode at 3130-3393 despite last mile resistance force, while DJIA fail to hold at top-quartile 27100-29568 but feel good at 25500-27500...3/N
Read 15 tweets
It’s time for @RBI to introspect on cost-benefit of economic stimulus through liquidity injection (part of ₹2 Trillion fiscal stimulus package) by purchases of Gilts, USD/INR, LTRO/TLTRO and CRR cut (combined cost of liquidity for banks at 4-5%) and getting back ₹6-7T at 3.35%
How to stop the reverse flow of over ₹6 Trillion and to put them to effective & intended use within the system and to avoid neutralisation of built-up assets in @RBI balance sheet? It’s not easy when lenders are risk-averse but most see as being pushed to the corner for lending!
But it’s not good enough when extension need to go beyond ₹6T of reverse flow into repo of excess SLR portfolio which @RBI could lend cheap bringing Repo rate down at 3.50%; so, there’s cash and eager to see how @RBI @FinMinIndia to put these to work for credit & investments!
Read 5 tweets
India MPC session is distant away (4-6 August) and retention of buy mode on run upto policy verdict is 12 trading sessions away; what could be pre-policy outlook when nothing major to emerge on policy rates - either pause or 25 bps cut, both considered non-event at this stage!
There’s no issue on system liquidity but what matters is the usage of it adjusted for reverse flow into R/R counter! This is what @RBI should work on before tinkering with policy rates when operating policy rate is already very low at 3.35%! How to cut the R/R flows to zero?
LAF corridor expansion at 3.35-4% (upping the spread from 25 to 65 bps) haven’t helped, bringing the need to think different! So, (a) R/R rate cut is no sense (b) Repo rate cut is irrelevant when not in operation bringing the need to (c) close of R/R counter or through auction
Read 5 tweets
What’s this week on global & Indian markets?

US equities retain risk-on mode despite most in disbelief (obviously so, when liquidity push not backed by fundamentals pull) while Treasuries gain (risk-balance) appetite and USD undertone shift from risk-off to value-buy mode...1/n
NASDAQ Index lead the equities show leaving Feb’20 high 9838 (and 2019 close 8972) way behind with July high punch at 10824 and S&P500 hold on to top-quartile play of 3130-3393 (building steam for new high), while DJIA in struggle for hold at 27100-29568. Good so far...2/n
Retain view that upside momentum is valid through Q3/2020 & run upto November US Presidential election major event risk. Till then, NASDAQ downside protection is firm above 9850-10000, S&P500 at 3000-3100 (for over 3230) and DJIA at 25000-25350 (pull bias towards 28538)...3/n
Read 16 tweets
Marathon Chart analysis- Will include all FNO stock

#Retweet #Share
01. #ACC
Read 146 tweets
Few trading ideas for tomorrow and next week...
FNO Stocks thread..dt.16.07.2020
#mothersumi..UP TL is broken...targets around 85..
#nifty..expecting to trade in new range..go short below 10570..
Read 19 tweets
Hello Traders, Below is our trade plan for upcoming week #NIFTY #BANKNIFTY #RELIANCE #INDIANCHEMICALS #TRADING #FNO #SENSEX #relianceagms2020 #FMCG Image
The list of stocks mentioned in the above list have recently crossed their All Time High #ATH #Momentum #Chemicals #Agrochem #FMCG #Telecom
Below is the link to chart where we have tried explaining the idea behind buy on Tata Consumer #Tataglobal #Tataconsumer #FMCG #Breakout #Momentum…
Read 8 tweets
1. #Banknifty Strategy : Here, I have created a weekly strategy which is high on time decay and has negative vega. Given vega has been falling off significantly in the past few days. Hoping the trend to continue. Bias is positive in weekly.
2. As the market rallied hard last week and used last hours of Thursday and whole of Friday to consolidate without giving up crucial zone of 21800 completely,there is a good likelihood of it attempting the recent highs again in the coming week.Thats an assumption I am working on.
3. Hence the weekly has a positive delta. However, if the rally has to resume, the fall in volatility/Vega may continue. Thats why it makes more sense to write more, buy less. Hence theta is positive. Gamma would need to be tackled if there is a fresh breakout of sorts.
Read 9 tweets
Decent Week. Decent Gains. Sharing my #Banknifty strategy for learning purpose. The below positions and P&L are only for reference. Actual trades were done in my account, but would not share actual P&L Screenshots here.
2. What you see here is a Double Calendar Spread modified to follow trend of the market. If the market is non-trending and stays within 0.5 sigma (standard deviation), it gains due to positive #theta or time-decay. If the market is trending on one side, #gamma gets active.
3. I should have captured initial #Greek positions also, that would have given a good perspective on how the strategy was planned. Will do it next time.
Read 9 tweets
Starting Stocks selection for tomorrow, Sharing charts and levels today with charts for tomorrow and Positional Charts.

1. Index Charts
2. Bullish Breakout
3. Bearish Breakdown

#retweet #share @CAPratik_INDIAN
01. Index- #Nifty 15Min chart after long time able to break range and now consolidating between new range 10,450/10,400 levels.

Levels for Tomorrow- 10,540/10,500/10,440/10,400/10,340
02. Index- #Banknifty after breakout index trading between middle of Resistance (22,500) and support (21,600) levels.

Levels for tomorrow- 22,400/22,200/21,700/21,450
Read 12 tweets
A small thread on how important first 15 mins is important for a day trader

1 long failure leading to short
2 short failure leading to long
3 gap down and long side trades
Read 8 tweets
FNO Analysis Thread dated 28th June...
Nifty IT and its major constituents...bullish...break above 200 SMA...
#ICICIBank ..asc triangle...look for BO above horizontal line this week...
Read 48 tweets
India banking sector set for two important events: (a) one-time Loan restructuring of Covid-19 impacted borrowers (b) Bringing entire public deposit taking financial intermediation institutions - SCBs, NBFCs, HFCs and all types of Cooperative banks - under @RBI regulation...1/n
What’s the impact of one-time loan restructuring? Relief from moratorium ends by end August and repayment of set-aside amount as term loan needs to be repaid before 31/3/2021 which is tough ask, hence need for restructuring to arrest spike in GNPA by end of FY21 into FY22...2/n
Pre-Covid GNPA of Banking sector is ~10% (higher for PSU banks, obviously) and NNPA is ~5% with PCR of ~50%; Assuming that 50% of performing loans will go under stress post C-19 in FY21 from cashflow issues, it’s alarming GNPA number wiping out capital of most banks....3/n
Read 17 tweets
FNO Analysis 21st June 2020-- thread..
#banknifty at crucial resistance...false breakout likely will happen...
#bajajfinance strong breakout given with volumes..
#sbin support taken at multiple go long..
Read 35 tweets
Starting Stocks selection for tomorrow, Sharing charts and levels today with charts for tomorrow.

1. Index Charts
2. Bullish Breakout
3. Bearish Breakdown

#retweet #share
#Nifty trading near resistance line 10,120/10,160 levels, if #Nifty break 10,160 level and sustain above this we can see major upside towards 10,240/10,300 levels or if #Nifty break 9,960 level we can see the major downside.

#BankNifty levels trading near resistance level 21,000/21,200 levels if #Index tomorrow not able to break these levels we can see some reversal or we can see support near 20,000/20,450 levels.

Read 13 tweets
Autopsy of #BankNifty Moves today

BN had been stuck in this wedge for many hours and a TL support that was tested on 4th 9th and 10th
It started with a gap down based on global weakness but did not stay there for too long
It went and filled the morning gap and the resistance at the upper channel came into play
Read 8 tweets
Typical Journey of a Beginner Trader-

1. I finished reading a book on technical analysis & attended a couple of paid seminars. Now I know what to do. I will just start making money from Monday. Can't wait. Don't know why this weekend is so long #NIFTYFUTURE #banknifty 1/n
I will kill the market.

2. I am shocked. This moving average worked so fine in my testing but did not work in my first trade. Let me change the parameter. Now it should work.
3. No way, this moving average is not just work the way the trainer demonstrated in the seminar 2/n
I am getting a lot of whipsaws. I think I need to add one more indicator like RSI or MACD.

4. This is still not working. I lost in 8 out of 10 trades. I can not handle volatility and can not afford wide stop losses. So, Let me change the time-frame from Daily to 30 min. 3/n
Read 13 tweets
here is a thread of few of my #banknifty tweets.

It started on 15th may where I saw intermarket #divergence

here I saw my confidence in long #banknifty

koi 50 point wala newbies nahi hu......mard jaise profit leta hu ya chota sl.

Read 15 tweets

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