Thread by @tdarling1

Global Macro Week in Review

1/12

This past week was NOT a #quad2 week

Bonds and proxies outperformed with LQD +1.2%, TLT +1.72%, XLRE +1.97% and XLU +1.12% vs. SPY +0.4%

Meanwhile, HE’s four horsemen languished with XLB, XLF and XLI all losing positive 1-month price momentum

2/12

Equity volatility ↘️ continued to drain from the market

$VIX 15.65 -4.69%
$VXN 19.16 -9.71%
$RVX 22.26 -2.45%
$VXEEM 17.88 -7.07%

⚠️ Opex ahead on 6/16

A supportive vol regime and a big decline in yields led to outsized performance in $COMPQ and $RUT

$RUT +1.89%
$COMPQ +1.85%
$CAC +1.3%
$SPX +0.41%
$KOSPI +0.29%
$NIKK +0.02% 🐻
$DAX unch
$HSI -0.26%
$SSEC -0.6%

$CAC still leads +9.16% over 3 months

4/12

Mixed ↔️ week for metals with SILVER and COPPER ↗️ and GOLD and PLAT ↘️

$SILVER +0.9%
$COPPER +0.22%
$GOLD -0.66%
$PLAT -1.14% 🐻

Only $GOLD +9.29% and SILVER +8.65% over the past 3 months are 🐂 trade AND trend.

5/12

GASO ⛽️ diverged from oil 🛢 this week as Natty ripped 🚀

$WTIC +1.85%
$BRENT +1.3%
$NATGAS +6.45%
$GASO -0.99%

$NATGAS now up 11.49% over one-month and 26.92% over 3 months.

6/12

$CORN back to bullish trade and trend, but divergences abound in grains

$CORN +0.26%
$WHEAT -1.02%
$SUGAR -0.9%
$SOYB -4.75%

Wheat and Beans now 🐻 trade but 🐂 trend

7/12

The world reserve currency staged a late week rally taking it back to neutral

$USD +0.42%
$GBP -0.45%
$AUD -0.43%
$EUR -0.49%
$CHF +0.11%
$CAD -0.75%
$JPY -0.12%

8/12

10/2s flatted ↘️ to 130.5 BPS -7.32% to the lowest level since late February, despite $CRB +2.27% and a new cycle high.

The MOVE closed 50.85, +2.15% on the week

2Y .149%
5Y .744%
10Y 1.454%
30Y 2.142%

9/12

The UST10Y ↘️ broke 1.50 as bond ETFs rallied ↗️

$TLT +1.72%
$CWB +1.47%
$LQD +1.2%
$IEF +0.73%
$BNDX +0.53%
$HYG +0.4%
$TIP +0.15%
$IVOL -0.32%

$TLT went from neutral to 🐂 trend this week, +4.59% over the past 3 months. $LQD +3.85% over trend duration as well.

10/12

Top performing equity sectors this week #quad4
$XLV +2.01%
$XLRE +1.97%
XLY +1.27%
$XLU +1.12%

Worst performers #quad2
$XLF -2.37%
$XLB -2.04%
$XLI -1.74%
$XLP -0.81%

11/12

Other sector callouts - $XLK, $XLU, $XLY flipped to positive 1-month price momentum this week, all 🐂 trend (3-month price momentum)

12/12

$CPI +5.0% 🔥 and $CRB +2.27% a new cycle high.
Yet the 10Y ↘️ -6.62% with flattening curve 🤔

Real yields ↘️ and GOLD ↘️ - another 🤔

The USD ↗️ and #quad4 sectors ↗️

#CrossCurrents abound in a declining vol environment; OPEX ahead ⚠️

Have a profitable week!

NOTE: on vacation this week in beautiful Colorado 🗻 riding bikes with some guys who think climbing Mt. Evans on a road 🚴‍♂️ is "fun."

Updates likely to be spotty at best.

Cheers!

Correction: $CRB +0.93% and new cycle high