1/x The $15 Monday SPX straddle, & even more so $31.5 6/16 SPX Fed straddle should tell U everything U need to know. Dealers are saddled w/more🍌’s than U could possibly imagine. The PAIN trade is more of the ‘Summer of George.’ If only someone had warned us all 2 weeks ago!!!😉
https://twitter.com/jam_croissant/status/1402521414729568260
2/x something important did change on Friday though. The market started showing its 1st signs of technical strength. After 2 weeks of 🐔, the SPX finally was able to exhibit the strength in trend that U would expect for strengthening flows (close above 1.5 stddev up) Pair that w/
3/x the strength that HY credit has been signaling & this continues to tentatively point towards a more risk on environ. It’ll likely be Slow moving, given overstretched sentiment &👸&🦥’s impending🏖trip, but given impending Vol & quant strategy flows, signals of continued
4/x strengthening moves towards the 2 stdev up, will be a sign to aggressively continue to BTD into 7/12. A close below the 20 day’ll lead to a preemptive move & is to be respected. We Continue to be short local (near downside) Vol in SPX, to be long tails in dispersion.
5/6Particularly focused on interest rate sensitive plays. 👀fixed strike Vol closely into a rally as it is beginning to slide too cheaply & could ultimately lead to its own undoing if U begin to see likely stock replacement strategies & Yolo momo trades begin to push up curves
6/6 until then, never short a dull market & continúe to digest premium responsable, while still long the tails. Good luck! 🍀
• • •
Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to
force a refresh
