This very simple table (not even a correlation) has produced apoplexy in some people. It is not part of a paper, it is not a study; it is simply a *difference* on a *difference* table: change in level of autocracy vs change in level of GDPpc.
There may be many problems with it. People started throwing issues as if it were a 100-page paper: perhaps growth rates before the change were high?; perhaps growth is unsustainable? perhaps there is convergence? perhaps counterfactual would have been better? Perhaps....
Because when one believes democracy must be good for growth he will meet every piece of contrary evidence with comments like this.
If this was a list of 10 most improved in democracy countries & all had above-average growth people would not insist on the points insisted here.
The point of this table is just to highlight what prima facie contradicts the facile claim of more democracy = more growth.
The second point is to stimulate people to be more creative in their research, not just repeat dogmas.
The third is to understand why autocracies may in some cases be popular.
The fourth is to realize that democracy must, before everything else, generate economic growth to remain sustainable.

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More from @BrankoMilan

8 Jun
One of excellent things in @IsabellaMWeber is the implicit distinction between three types of reforms that economists or politicians not knowing the background and history of communist reforms confound.
Reform 1: price reforms, incl. wage reforms and exchange rate as a universal price. These are reforms that in principle do not affect the system. They have been debated since the 1960s by all kinds of fully socialist economists. This is Barone & Lange redux.
Reform 2: But if price reforms do not yield results (as became clear in 1970-80s) because enterprises invest badly nevertheless, wages are increased, companies hoard inputs (all evils diagnosed by--among others- Kornai), then one begins to question property relations.
Read 8 tweets
6 Jun
A thread on "Borgen".
I just finished the first series (10 episodes, I think) of "Borgen". It was way above my expectations which indeed were low, based on the idea that a political drama in a country as orderly as Denmark cannot be very interesting.
To some extent, it is true (see my points below), but the show does the best with what it has. Its objective is to document how illusions are gradually destroyed when one is faced with the hard reality of politics. (The acting is excellent too.)
But while the PM compromises on most of her original beliefs, and while there is lots of maneuvering and horse-trading among the politicians, everything is done within the rules and within the law.
So what is apparently not done in Denmark?
Read 8 tweets
6 Jun
American MSM seems to be free in the same way that the old Soviet joke argued that Soviet papers are free: they are free to attack ceaselessly those who have been designated "enemies".
The last 12 months of Sinophobia were painful to watch and read.
It brings memories of similar hysterias: after Sept 11 (Taliban turned within a day from heroes to villains), in the run up to the Iraq war (nuclear arms were everywhere but UN was just stupid or corrupt not to see), then on Iran (where is now Ahmedinejad the new Hitler?) etc.
The point is not that China is blameless or right or great, the point is that one should exert some common sense and tact when writing, and not publish 100% of phobic articles.
Read 4 tweets
3 Jun
It comes as an unpleasant surprise.
I was reading the published multi-year correspondence between Kawabata and Mishima (both of whom I admire). it is entirely about very mundane things: weather, food recipes, travel, publishers.
War is never mentioned, even if the exchange of letters begins in the Spring of 1945.
But then suddenly Kawabata describes his manipulation (although he does not call it such) of PEN to become a candidate for Nobel.
Then asks Mishima to write a recommendation. Mishima rightly (and very politely; he is a junior partner in this relationship) replies that, given his reputation, it may be counterproductive.
Read 4 tweets
28 May
Many years ago when I read Neruda's excellent memoirs (I would suggest the book to everyone), I was a bit puzzled by Neruda going ecstatic in front of every Siberian dam when the same dam would leave him ice- cold in the US.
But then I thought I understood.
A dam built by capitalists is built by clever rich people who try to extract money by selling electricity to the poor. And they are clever enough to have hired the best engineers to do it.
But a dam built by workers is built in order to provide the light and heat to other workers. And workers thereby showed that, however downtrodden and mistreated they historically were, they could match best capitalists.
Read 7 tweets
27 May
My article "After the Financial Crisis: The Evolution of the Global Income Distribution Between 2008 and 2013" just published today:
onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/10.1111/ro…
Using the newly created, and in terms of coverage and detail, the most complete household income data from more than 130 countries, the paper analyzes the changes in the global income distribution between 2008 and 2013.
This was the period of the global financial crisis and recovery. It is shown that global inequality continued to decline, largely due to China’s and India’s high growth rates that explain about two-thirds of the global Gini decrease between 2008 and 2013.
Read 4 tweets

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