If you haven't read enough takes about the Biden-Putin summit, here's mine. I think the summit is a good idea, but I also don't expect to see anything significant come from it in the short term. It is an opportunity for both leaders to have a frank conversation about intentions.
Why is this important? Well, throughout the Trump administration, details of POTUS’ conversations were leaked to the press or came out during the impeachment hearings. Why would Putin feel confident that he could be honest and admit possibly damaging things over the phone? 2/
The goal is to develop rules of the road for competition with Russia while avoiding conflict, limiting competition from being too damaging, and preventing a further deterioration in relations. The US unipolar moment is over and China is the bigger long-term threat. 3/
That means that the US may need to make certain concessions and prioritize certain threats over others (not all Russian actions are equally problematic). Ideally, both leaders leave the summit with a clear understanding of the other’s intentions and their biggest concerns. 4/
Some have argued that US policy should emphasize trying to create a fissure between Russia and China. I don’t think this is a realistic goal—both sides see the US as the bigger threat—but US policy should seek to not push them further together. 5/
Some argue that there are a # of problems that will eventually scuttle Sino-Russian relations (e.g. Central Asia, Russia’s Far East, trade imbalance, copying Russian arms, etc.), but that these issues have existed for years and yet Russia continues to move closer to China. 6/
A key problem in US-Rus relations is that Russia views its neighbors as a critical component of its security and will intervene if it doesn’t like the leaders or policies of its neighbors, many of whom lack an established succession mechanism and some have Soviet-era leaders. 7/
This means US-Rus relations are tied to the domestic politics of Russia's neighbors, and we could literally be a heartbeat away from a collapse in relations. This issue won’t be solved tomorrow and will remain for the foreseeable future so a reset wouldn’t make sense. 8/
I also don't think we've adequately acknowledged the affect the increasing amount of domestic disinformation in the US could have on foreign leader's misperceptions of US intentions. I see this from some smart Russian friends who share articles from American conspiracy sites. 9/
Obviously, the reverse is true about misperceptions of Russian intentions. Which is another reasons why I think we should normalize POTUS meeting with foreign leaders in person, including our adversaries. Ideally, future meetings won't be treated as much as spectacles. 10/
As a reminder, much of the equipment Russia moved to Ukraine's borders in March-April is still there, including the 41st Combined Arms Army equipment at the Pogonovo TA, the landing craft from the Caspian flotilla and 4 large landing ships from the Northern and Baltic fleets. 11/ 
Russia still has the mil capabilities to rapidly escalate in Ukraine. In his Federal Assembly speech in April, Putin said he would respond to violations of Russia's red lines with an asymmetric response, which likely meant an escalation in Ukraine in response to US policies. 12/
One of the problems is that this summit has been built up into a bit of a spectacle, but it isn't designed nor likely to produce immediate tangible results, which is a problem given the anticipation. Much of the narrative surrounding it has been counterproductive as well. 13/
My hope is that Paul Whelan and Trevor Reed will be freed, they will agree to further arms control talks, regular consular services will resume, and both sides will work together on some foreign policy issues. I'm fine with them keeping much of it between themselves. 14/
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