Thread by @chrisprener

I’ve updated my #Missouri #COVID19 website for Tuesday, 6/15 - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi…. Quite a few highlights are below 👇.

The growth you can see in the statewide 7-day average, placing us tied for no. 3 nationally, is almost entirely from “outstate” MO. 1/17

The two regions I am most concerned remain the same: Northern Missouri and Southwest Missouri. That said, the number of counties in those areas that I'm watching has grown considerably over the past week. 2/17

In Northern MO, Putnam and Livingston counties are seeing their rates fall, but Linn County remains no. 2 nationally (for jurisdictions with more than 10,000 people) because of its rate of new cases. Mercer is a new county to watch as well. 3/17

In Northeastern MO, Clark County is a county to pay attention to as well. 4/17

In Northwest MO, Daviess and Worth counties are experiencing sharp growth, with signs of rising cases in Andrew, Buchanan, and Gentry counties. Just to the south, I’m also worried about Chariton County’s rate of new cases. 5/17

Continuing south into the Lake of the Ozarks region, Camden, Dent, Laclede, and Miller counties are all showing signs of rising 7-day averages. Further south of I-44 in the Ozarks, Douglas, Texas, and Wright counties have similarly increased rates. 6/17

To the southwest, the majority of counties around Springfield and Joplin that I follow closely are experiencing rising cases. This is particularly pronounced in the greater Springfield-Branson area. Taney County is no. 9 nationally (for >10k resident jurisdictions). 7/17

I am suspicious of Polk County’s low rates. What is being reported by the County itself is more concerning than what DHSS reports, and the New York Times isn’t registering changes there at all right now. 8/17

https://twitter.com/chrisprener/status/1404816296018071552?s=20

In Southeast MO, Dunklin County is another one to watch, with a similar upward trajectory that we are seeing in other parts of the state. 9/13

In #StLouis, Lincoln County’s rates had been falling but have started climbing again. Rates are also climbing in both North St. Louis City and Northeastern St. Louis County. These areas bore the brunt of the first wave of the pandemic in Spring 2020. 10/17

Hospitalization rates still look generally good in #StLouis, but we’ve had higher in-patient rates the last two days that are worth watching closely. Note that, while the Task Force’s pressers are suspended right now, they are still providing daily data releases. 11/17

Hospitalizations, however, are growing in both the Springfield and Joplin metros - these are significantly higher than other metros as of June 4th. These rates map onto the increases we’re seeing at the metro level in both areas and more generally across that corner of MO. 12/17

Vaccination rates have stabilized, with rates of new doses given between 12 and 20 per 1,000 in the #StLouis and #KCMO metros and similar rates in both the City of Joplin and Boone County. Rates are far lower elsewhere. 13/17

One interesting note is that Latino and #AAPI Missourians have outpaced whites in both vaccination initiation and completion, and the initiation rate among African Americans has closed a bit on the white rate. 14/17

As a reminder, it is African Americans and Latinos that have borne the brunt of morbidity and mortality in Missouri over the last fifteen months. 15/17

My standard caveats about uncertainty - infections (1) are historical data that reflect infections 2-3 weeks ago, (2) are biased by testing patterns, (3) may include probable but unconfirmed cases in some counties, and (4) rates are not individual probabilities of illness. 16/17

Additional data, maps, and plots are on my tracking site - slu-opengis.github.io/covid_daily_vi….

The next update will be on Thursday via River City Data, while my next 🧵 is planned for Tuesday, 6/22 at the latest, though probably sooner (I'm letting rates dictate threads right now).

17/17