1/ I immigrated to the US 20 years ago, and I don't regret the decision. The people, the opportunities. It really *is* a wonderful country.

But downsides exist and they can basically all be summarized by the leafblower.

A thread... 👇
2/ What is a leafblower? It's a motorized wind generator that moves light outdoor particles (leaves, twigs, dirt/dust).

Facts about the common leafblower and its typical use:
3/ It's gas-powered with a 2-stroke engine.

That means it's incredibly loud and incredibly smelly. You can't mistake the odor. It's an crappy-machine solution to a pseudo-problem.
4/ It doesn't *fix* the "ugly leaves in my yard" problem, it merely makes it someone else's problem. Usually the neighbor, sometimes the street.

Of course, the most efficient way for the neighbor to remove their leaves is to blow them back into your yard.
5/ This is individualism at its worst: act as though collective action is impossible or undesirable, and then ignore or complain about the resulting arms-race-to-the-bottom the individualism creates.
6/ It creates long-lasting swirling clouds of smelly dust. In addition to its use being zero-sum from the leaf-location perspective, it's actually negative sum taking into account the kicked up dust, noise and pollution.
7/ Then there's the class aspect. I've yet to see a leafblower wielded by a wealthy homeowner. It's invariably a contracted gardener (typically an immigrant) who has to endure the machine up-close.
8/ I'll let y'all draw your own analogies, but IMO the leafblower can teach us a lot.

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More from @AgustinLebron3

2 May
1/ Reading @nope_its_lily and this hit hard:

"In all honesty, most finfluencers have pretty shit takes on the market. It kind of arises based on the mismatch between the skills required to actually trade and the skills required to market oneself."

nopeitslily.substack.com/p/a-polemic-an…
2/ That statement is insanely and ridiculously correct.

I think everyone who has other high-value uses of their time goes through the same thought process.

"Why am I doing this?"
3/ I mean, if you wanted to read and learn from #fintwit, you could do so without posting.

If you're not selling anything (or trying to raise AUM which is the same thing), it makes very very little sense.
Read 9 tweets
20 Apr
I just answered an emailed question. I suspect @KrisAbdelmessih @SinclairEuan @therobotjames and others get these too.

"I'm a smart engineering/CS/math student/graduate. How do I get into quant trading?"

A thread. 👉

1/n
2/ I'm going to preface this by asking an important question:

Why trading?

Almost every outsider has an idea of what trading is that's pretty far from the reality. It's not "deploy cool ML models on gigabytes of data". It's:
3/
- Do I have enough cash margin in account JP44315A?
- Why does the data format disseminated by broker X suck so much with this new update?
- How do I optimize my tax footprint?

And a thousand other little annoyances. Plus:

- Am I about to incinerate $ somehow?
Read 10 tweets
2 Apr
1/ A short thread about priors.

- What are they?
- Why do we need them?
- A few specific priors I hold.
2/ Priors are supposed to be "beliefs you hold before seeing the data".

Taken at face value this is crazy. You've been collecting data since the day you were born.
3/ But what we usually mean by priors (in a non-technical sense) is "what is your default assumption".

You may object "Ah, I don't hold any assumptions until I see the data."

That's dumb. (A) You do actually, and (B) you couldn't function in the world if you didn't.
Read 12 tweets
31 Mar
A book review: London And The 17th Century

amazon.com/London-Sevente…

by @margarettelinc1

1/n
When Elizabeth I died, noblemen had to make a huge show of her funeral in order to prep people for the accession of James I (James VI of Scotland).

With modern eyes, it’s cool to see how critical the “show” was to a government’s legitimacy. Government meaning the king, obv.

2/
This wasn’t some unnecessary extravagance. Shutting the city down for a day or two for the funeral procession was a critical part of establishing the legitimacy of the next king.

Oh and by the way, yes James II really was a horrendously bad king.

3/
Read 18 tweets
25 Mar
1/ Musings about variance in trading, in sports, and in life.

A thread.
2/ Why does poker get played for big $ but chess (mostly) doesn’t?

Because of variance.

In chess, if you’re rated 1800 ELO and you’re playing someone rated 2000, you pretty much know exactly your P(win) and P(tie). (It’s 15% and 19%, go check).
3/ There’s no sense in betting for two reasons:

- A wide spread of ability directly creates wide spread in outcome. A 2400 will NEVER lose to an 1800.
- All these probs are pretty much known. $ gets traded when people disagree about probs. No such thing exists in chess.
Read 21 tweets
10 Mar
1/ Quick mini-thread on a useful way to think about risk based on a recent discussion I had.

"If I have an opinion about lithium price, should I trade $LIT?"
2/ Almost definitely not. $LIT is a very weird monster. Many ETFs that target second-tier commodities are equally weird. Why?

Because $LIT includes both producers and consumers.
3/ High Li prices are good for producers, bad for consumers. So what's the effect on $LIT?

It depends on the balance of producers and consumers.
Read 10 tweets

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