Powell: “We are working on it. Don’t have particulars & timing. We want the Leverage Ratio (SLR) to be a “Backstop” to Risk Based Capital Requirements. When Leverage Ratios are Binding it does skew incentives for firms to substitute Low Risk Assets for High Risk Ones.. it’s a…
“….straightforward thing…& because of the substantial increase in Reserves, “Treasuries” & other Safe Assets in the Banking System the SLR is “Rapidly Ceasing to be the intended Backstop” that we want it to be.”
- Powell $XLF 🔥🔥🔥🔥🔥
The fact that they are taking a “hard look” at this also means that they are looking at SCB as well as GSIB Scores to also encourage Sheet Deployment into Loans.. keep Supply Situation all clear for Money Demand/Loan growth in 2H21 with accelerated Reopening & Inventory Build.
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The Fed intentionally raised IOER & RRP to start the process.. people clearly sold Bills 4 RRP.. lots of em why Curve flattened some..but GC < IOER & no stress anywhere… no $DXY shortages anywhere…I don’t think Sterilizing is a big deal in this context… but actually necessary.
Banks are encouraging this…not a surprise.. they have been firing Non Op Deposits since last November that don’t hold any LCR or RLAP credit. $JPM has a 160% OpCo LCR it’s way too high…There or others’ issue isn’t a future lack of liquidity… it’s a lack of Balance Sheet..
… imho there’s a big difference between both concepts.. there’s $7 Trillion of XS of Deposits over Loans which for the most part is HQLA. Loan/Deposit ratios is at 60% & 45-50% for GSIBs. They can’t contain any of this liquidity… more draining is great.
$DXY Ripping Does NOT = Bank Funding Shortage (Global De-Levering #WreckingBall) imho
Here’s one clue… FRA OIS is still pinned at 3bps & NII still stinks…
Partly why Credit markets couldn’t care any less about the 5s30s Curve coz nobody funds at the 5 year point.
Let’s move across the pond to some European Banks… they have almost Zero issues with access to $DXY. 3M Cross FX Basis Spreads are -3bps.. But the Intelligentsia they keep telling me EM & EMEA has a lot of dollar debt.. u know all those BIS Reports and all…
While true that there are large Cross FX Claims…higher $DXY has a marginal impact on debt service.. but higher $DXY just means there’s some marginal increase in debt service.. that could pail in comparison to a Reopen & stronger earnings power that’s lagged by 6 months on Covid.
That’s not to say there’s not going to be some Tail in Credit Losses/NCOs rising from now such epically low levels will be close to nothing in 2021… partly coz of Stimmy.. but people forget $2Trillion in XS Savings isn’t all Stimmy.. Regardless the Insane amount of Loss Reserves
that r already built into Capital coz of actions taken to their P&L & BS getting smashed in 1H20 coz of CECL Pulling Forward Loan Loss Reserves for “Lifetime Losses” vs previous “Incurred next 12 months Loss” regime is what killed Banks & Market on Build in 1H20 but also swift V.
I think that the “Tables are Set for a Booming Economy.”
The Bank Reg Tourniquet is gonna getting loosened… So Supply is gonna find Demand for Loans imho… Key is when Loans do come back? I don’t think we are that far away as most think. Let see tho.
Imho… if they are really gonna loosen Baki Regs.. seems like he’s super serious to the point he was reading off a script when the question came up… then they can hike IOER at least 4 times to 1% w/o Breaking a Sweat in 2022, given backdrop. $XLF #Reflation
Isn’t $SQ gonna take a #Bitcoin impairment in 2Q? Just asking for a friend.
Unless they Diamonds Hands it & #Bitcoin rallies like crazy till quarter end.. which is 2 weeks away. $SQ
What happens to $SQ when Debit GPV starts to flail after Stimmy runs dry.. & lower cost Debit starts to recede & Credit finally takes over later this year… & people figure out Cash App & $SQ ain’t nothing but a #Bitcoin platform that purchases $170MM of this Spec stuff at highs.