Thread by @blankslate2017

I hesitate to praise the @theintercept, but I'm going to praise the Intercept. This is a great article and provides a real window into what Manchin is thinking and how lobbying/interest groups operate in DC. theintercept.com/2021/06/16/joe…

My read of this: Manchin appears much closer to siding w/ the Dem caucus than has been previously reported and is telling this 'centrist' PAC (founded by Joe Lieberman) that they have to move some GOP votes to reach 60 on some measures or he's going with his party.

Manchin is telling donors that unless he can find 10 good GOPers, the left is going to win the argument on the filibuster and it will be dead (note: it's already dead for GOP priorities thanks to McConnell. Mitch just keeps it around to troll Dems & dare them to kill it off).

These donors are the insufferable Lieberman centrists who love the filibuster, hate incentivizing green energy, hate corporate tax hikes, hate labor and love US militarism (the common denominators being corporate regulation, gov't contracts and corporate welfare).

Manchin, however, is very blunt with these donors, telling them, in essence, that if the GOP won't even go along with a 1/6 Commission, then the left will have proven that bipartisanship is dead and is a waste of time.

The fact that Manchin is begging this group to talk to Roy Blunt to change his vote on the 1/6 Commission underscores the weakness of Manchin's position, the firmness of McConnell's hand on the GOP caucus, and the futility of fighting for the filibuster in such an environment.

Lowering the filibuster threshold to 55 will alarm these donors, but Manchin is letting them know the train is leaving the station. The fall back, imho, is the donors push for a one-off waiver of the filibuster for voting rights and support the reconciliation bill.

What these donors don't want is to make it easier to pass liberal priorities, and that's why they like the filibuster. They'll be ok with a one-off change for something that doesn't impact corporations, but not a permanent change that could allow a Sanders/Warren style GND bill.

What's also implied in this article (imho) is that these lobbying groups have diminished power in DC. They're dinosaurs. One can almost sense Manchin looking to a post-Senate career, as he's lecturing these folks, not asking them what he can do in exchange for their support.