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South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium Profile picture
@saCOVID19mc
Jun 17, 2021 • 5 tweets • 3 min read • Read on X
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[1/5] CITY OF JOHANNESBURG Update: High case incidence across all sub-districts over the last week and extremely high case numbers reported in Regions C, D, E and F; cases increasing by 62%-150% compared to 7 days prior.
[2/5] TSHWANE Update: High case incidence across all sub-districts ranging between 62 and 525 cases per 100k pop. Increases of 80%-144% compared to the 7 days prior.

Visit sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za to follow cases and hospitalizations in your region.
[3/5] EKURHULENI Update: All sub-districts are experiencing high case incidence, ranging between 76 and 264 cases/100k pop. Percentage change in cases ranges between 25%-124% compared to the week before.
[4/5] SEDIBENG Update: High case incidence in all sub-districts (117-312 cases/100k pop) with daily incidence rates close to or higher than the peak of the second wave.

Visit sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za to follow cases and hospitalizations in your region.
[5/5] WEST RAND Update: Daily incidence rates in all sub-districts are higher than the peak of the second wave. 7-day incidence is high ranging between 141-345 cases/100k pop and cases have increased by 120-124% compared to 7 days prior.

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More from @saCOVID19mc

South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium Profile picture
Dec 19, 2021
[Thread] South Africa has seen a recent rapid rise in #SARSCoV2 cases & unprecedented number of reinfections.

We've been working on bounding the levels of transmissibility & immune evasion that could explain #Omicron's spread in 🇿🇦.

sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za/downloads/Pear…

#NotYetPeerReviewed
We find that #Omicron is likely more transmissible than #Delta. This finding holds across a wide range of assumptions about immune evasion that are consistent with early neutralization studies.

Our analysis includes several steps.

#NotYetPeerReviewed Fig 4: Estimated transmissibility & immune evasion relations
First, we analyze trends in S-gene target failure (SGTF) at the provincial level. SGTF is a marker of #Omicron sublineage BA.1. Our updated model accounts for SGTF being an imperfect marker, & we now fit the model to data through 6 December.
Read 14 tweets
South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium Profile picture
Nov 2, 2021
[1/4] The recent observed increase in COVID-19 cases in Gauteng province is primarily due to a reporting delay for antigen test results. The case plots and metrics on the SACMC Epidemic Explorer are also affected by the reporting delay.
[2/4] Note that the Sustained Increase Monitoring plots on SACMC Epidemic Explorer are useful to interpret trends in cases over time.
[3/4] In Gauteng, the delayed data result in an uptick in cases, but the increase has not occurred consistently over a prolonged period and a “sustained increase” has not been triggered.
Read 4 tweets
South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium Profile picture
Jun 11, 2021
[1/4] In light of the high number of cases reported, we present an update for several provinces which have an increase in cases: Gauteng has had a 12-90% increase in daily new cases, and high case incidence (105-192/100k pop). Image
[2/4] KwaZulu-Natal, in almost all districts, has had cases increase by 50%-187% compared to 7 days prior. Six districts have a MEDIUM risk incidence (12-24 cases/100k pop). There have been upticks in eThekwini, iLembe and uMgungundlovu. Image
[3/4] North West province has HIGH risk incidence of 37-87 cases/100k pop, and 2 districts have an increase in cases compared to the last 7 days: Bonjanala Platrium (47%) and Ngaka Modiri Molema (23%). Image
Read 4 tweets
South African COVID-19 Modelling Consortium Profile picture
May 3, 2021
SACMC released a report on potential 3rd wave scenarios: buff.ly/3aYKW0X. Monitoring trends in cases, eg. on sacmcepidemicexplorer.co.za, is the best indicator of when a 3rd wave is likely to begin. [1/5]
In summary: In the absence of new variant, the peak of the 3rd wave is expected lower than the 2nd wave, and time from initial increase in transmission to peak is on average 2-3 months. [2/5]
Across all ages, hospital admissions are expected lower than in 2nd wave. Admissions in each province depend on seroprevalence after 2nd wave, age distribution and prevalence of comorbidities, individual responses to increasing case numbers and to restrictions. [3/5]
Read 5 tweets

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