1/ Thread on Galaxy Digital (TSX: $GLXY)

We believe Galaxy Digital is a diversified bet on the success of crypto.

Galaxy aims to encompass all facets of the digital asset market, providing various avenues of service & infrastructure for both retail and institutional clients.
2/@novogratz is the CEO, he has taken his experience from Goldman and Fortress to create an institutional bridge into crypto.

All stats in this thread are in USD and based on $GLXY Q1 2021 numbers.

Let's go through Galaxy's 5 main business lines!
3/ #1 Asset Management

Galaxy has ~$1.6bn AUM across BTC & ETH ETFs in Canada + private funds focusing on DeFi, Web 3, NFT’s, and Gaming.

Galaxy provides exposure beyond BTC and ETH, offering institutions a full range of products covering the entire crypto space.
4/ #2 Principal Investments

Galaxy holds ~$2bn worth of crypto on their balance sheet alongside ~$350mm of private investments across companies in the space (below).

Galaxy has diversified holdings of both tokens and equity investments providing crypto infrastructure.
5/ This ~$2bn worth of crypto includes large portions of BTC & ETH alongside investments like $LUNA.

As an investment Galaxy provides great exposure across the spectrum of crypto ranging from native DeFi & NFT tokens all the way to crypto equities such as BlockFi.
6/ #3 Trading

Galaxy is currently making markets in over 90 tokens and is one of the biggest OTC traders in the US.

They provide loans, derivatives, and structured products allowing clients to access customized strategies and hedge positions.
7/ As one of the leading crypto trading desks in the US, Galaxy has positioned itself to offer a suite of products to any customer.

Ranging from miner’s looking to hedge their BTC position or a family office looking to get exposure to more esoteric DeFi tokens.
8/ #4 Mining

Galaxy launched their Bitcoin mining services in 2021 helping both miners finance equipment along with doing their own in-house BTC mining.

Galaxy is mining Bitcoin sub $12,000 and plans to scale their proprietary operations significantly into 2022.
9/ Galaxy has created tailor made products to help miners: hedging products for BTC & hash rate exposure, along with financing + sourcing new mining equipment.

This has positioned Galaxy as the go to financial infrastructure for bitcoin miners in North America.
10/ #5 Investment Banking

Galaxy sits in a unique position given its deep knowledge of crypto assets and businesses.

This has allowed them scale their IB business helping with financing, M&A and general corporate advisory across a growing list of crypto companies.

Recently:
11/ This keeps Galaxy at frontier of innovation in the space, constantly looking at deals and evaluation companies.

It allows them to build relationships, serve as advisors and take part in financings with top crypto related businesses.
12/ Galaxy’s IB arm has also allowed them to streamline their own in-house acquisitions. Recently Galaxy has acquired Drawbridge Lending, Blue Fire Capital, Vision Hill Group and BitGo.

These acquisitions have widely expanded the scope of Galaxy’s operation specifically BitGo.
13/ Galaxy announced the acquisition of custodian BitGo for roughly ~$1.2bn in cash and stock on May 5th.

This is key infrastructure that completes Galaxy’s offerings into a full-service custodian and prime brokerage for crypto assets.
14/ BitGo currently custodies over $40bn in assets generating recurring revenues and expands Galaxy's footprint to an additional 400 institutional clients located in over 50 countries.

This provides massive synergies and cross selling opportunities across all business lines.
15/ When BitGo is fully onboarded, Galaxy starts to become a true competitor to Coinbase.

96% of Coinbase’s revenue comes from transaction fees, a large portion of these are attributable to their very high retail fee structure.
16/ As a crypto equity Galaxy seems to have a wider scope of business lines and investment exposure. $COIN is likely to see aggressive fee compression as competition increases.

Long term we believe $GLXY has potential to close the gap on $COIN being valued at ~$6.5bn vs ~$50bn.
17/ This is not to say that $COIN cannot pivot or perform well, but the gravy train of 4% fees on crypto purchases won’t be around forever.

At this point we would rather own $GLXY over $COIN, especially with the upcoming up-listing of $GLXY in H2 2021.
18/ We also believe Galaxy will gain significant market share with US institutions.

Every executive has worked at a well-respected bank or asset manager; they know how to speak their language and bridge the gap from traditional finance into crypto.
19/ You can see this in real time as Galaxy has partnered with traditional asset managers; CI and Morgan Stanley to offer Bitcoin and Ethereum to their clients.

We see connections with traditional finance being a huge growth avenue for Galaxy in the future.
20/ A recent Fidelity survey of 800 institutional investors, shows 91% of respondents plan on having an allocation to digital assets over the next five years.

Due to management and these partnerships, it makes Galaxy an obvious first choice for new investors.
21/ $GLXY is currently listed on the TSX and has a US up listing planned in H2 of 2021.

Key Stats (USD):
Stock Price: ~$19.00
Shares Outstanding: 342.2mm

Market Cap: ~$6,549mm

Net Income 2020A = ~$539mm
Net Income Q1 2021 = ~$1,109mm
22/ Galaxy's Net Income has been driven by appreciation on its Digital Assets and Principal Investments.

To be clear this is not likely re-occurring revenue but dependent on crypto returns. Yet it has allowed Galaxy to make strategic investments and scale their business lines.
23/ We can start to see the long-term thesis behind a company like Galaxy. They will not only facilitate capital inflows from traditional finance, but they also have exposure to ~$2.4bn worth of these digital assets and businesses.
24/ We view Galaxy as an excellent way to play out a broader crypto/digital thesis over the coming years.

Exposure to the actual underlying digital assets and businesses alongside their own diversified product offerings means Galaxy provides exposure to everything crypto.
25/ Thanks for reading!

*Not Financial Advice, DYOR*

*We are long $GLXY*

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More from @FloodCapital

9 Jun
1/ Lido Finance Investment Thesis Update:

@LidoFinance continues to impress me. The creation of liquid staking derivatives across top layer 1’s and dApps is a massive untapped market.

Recently a proposal for $SOL was passed and one for $AAVE is in the works!
2/ Since our last thread (40 days ago) ETH in Lido has increased from 250,000 to 460,000! Growing stETH by 75% in May alone.

If stETH were to grow at even 1/4th this pace (19% MoM) for the rest of the year, we would see ~1.3m stETH by December which is ~1.2% of all ETH.
3/ Currently there are proposals on AAVE and Maker to integrate stETH as collateral.

If integrated this would increase stETH flows significantly. Assuming the stETH/ETH peg can maintain itself then stETH is simply a better form of collateral.
Read 22 tweets
7 Jun
1/ Macro thesis on BTC & ETH

During @UpOnlyTV with @CryptoCobain @ledgerstatus @Sicarious_ @mattysino, Matty and I got into a debate, I am writing this thread to clarify my Macro thesis.

In my view the only way out of current debt levels is inflation = bullish for BTC & ETH.
2/ The Debt/GDP ratio in the US has skyrocketed to new all-time highs (~130%), the last time it at these levels was WW2. We peaked in 1946 and quickly de-levered.

This raises two questions 1) Why is Debt to GDP important? 2) How did de-lever so quickly last time?
3/ The Debt/GDP ratio is important as it shows the ability for the country issuing debt to pay it back. We have seen creditors get concerned about the US ability to pay its debts in real terms.

Looking back to 2014 when foreign central banks stopped buying US debt on net.
Read 20 tweets
3 Jun
1/ Thread on the macro cycle and crypto interest rates.

Crypto interest rates are set by the market and self-correct, facilitating an anti-fragile digital economy.
Contrast this with centralized interest rates that have created an extremely sensitive system drowning in debt.
2/ Interest rates in crypto will eventually approach the staking rate of top L1 blockchains. I will be using the mechanics behind ETH staking as a reference (post EIP-1559 and Merge).

The ETH staking rate is generated in 2 components:
1) Block Rewards
2) Fees (Economic Activity)
3/ Firstly, block rewards will be the stable portion of the staking rate that provide a base rate/interest rate floor.

It is important to have this base issuance to secure the network over time and provide a minimum rate for lenders.
Read 20 tweets
6 May
1/ Thread on Anchor $ANC

Anchor is a savings platform that leverages liquid staking derivatives to provide a more stable and attractive yield then other lending/borrowing services available in DeFi.

Let’s explore how Anchor's 20% APY is made possible.
2/ Anchor can achieve this through leveraging liquid staking derivatives. The only collateral available on Anchor right now is bLuna, bLuna is a liquid form of staked Luna.

bLuna and Luna are pegged 1:1, staking rewards are paid out it in UST to the bLuna holder.
3/ bLuna is liquid and still accrues staking rewards, increasing capital efficiency substantially as it can now be freely traded and used in Anchor.

Anchor plans to integrate more collateral options with the release of Col-5. Including stETH, bDot, BAtom, and bSol.
Read 25 tweets
29 Apr
1/ Thread on @LidoFinance and liquid staking derivatives

Lido is at the forefront of liquid staking derivatives on both Ethereum $ETH and Terra $LUNA.

Liquid staking derivatives will be key infrastructure for increasing the capital efficiency of PoS assets within DeFi.
2/ Liquid staking derivative tokens currently have two different models.

1. stETH rebases everyday to reflect the underlying staked balance

2. bLuna is pegged 1:1 with Luna, it pays out UST equivalent of the staking rewards.

These derivatives can now be freely traded.
3/ This greatly improves capital efficiency & liquidity for all stakable assets.

It allows previously locked up capital only earning a staking reward to be used in various DeFi protocols, increasing its yield and productivity.

Take bLuna and Anchor as an example.
Read 23 tweets
26 Apr
1/ Thread on the Terra $LUNA ecosystem.

Imagine if every time USDT, USDC, DAI or any other ETH based stable coin was minted it required an equal amount burned in ETH?

Welcome to LUNA’s tokenomics, a fascinating design that has burnt >100m (~22%) Luna over the past 3 months.
2/ 1$ worth of UST minted equals $1 worth of Luna burned.

So let’s try to contextualize UST demand and the 100m Luna we have burned over the past few months.

Check out @SmartStake for the awesome dashboard.
3/ Terra is a PoS layer 1 that currently has 2 main protocols.

A savings account through Anchor $ANC (20% fixed yield) and an investment account through Mirror $MIR (synthetic equities).

I will write about $MIR and $ANC in a separate thread for now we will focus on $UST.
Read 17 tweets

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