1. So what will life, and work, be like after the pandemic? What trends are fleeting, which are more likely to stick around? A quick thread on a new study just out in @PNASNews:
pnas.org/content/118/27…
pnas.org/content/118/27…
2. The study by a large team of researchers at @ArizonaState & @UofILSystem is based on a survey 7500+ Americans betweenJuly-October 2020.
3. The study looked at reported changes in the way people work, commute, shop, & how & where they live. (One caveat which the study notes: surveys are contextual and temporally bounded so patterns & behaviors may change as we pass through the pandemic with time).
4. Work: The share of workers who work remotely or "telecommute" a significant amount of time expected to increase to 26%. That's a big increase from pre-pandemic life, and in line with other estimates.
5. There is a huge class divide in remote work: with the college educated and those making over $100k more than twice as likely to do so. Study: "Thus, these quality-of-life improvements will flow primarily to high-income, highly educated individuals."
6. A large majority of remote workers - more than 70% report their productivity "stayed the same or improved" during the pandemic - also consistent with research by Nick Bloom & others.
7. Commuting: The shift to remote work has big implications for commuting, with the biggest impacts coming to transit.
8. The study projects at 15% decrease in car commuting ...
9. But it predicts a 40% decline in transit commute trips, post- versus pre-pandemic. Most of that shift (40%) entails a shift from transit to car commutes, with just 10% coming from other types of commutes like walking or biking.
10. That said, people say they are & will continue to walk and bike more. Nearly 15% plan to bike more & more than 20% say walking is one of the top 3 most enjoyable aspects of their new normal.
11. Moving/ Relocation: The big factor here, according to the study, is remote work.
12. Study: "Movers in dense urban areas were not more likely than other movers to be motivated by either pandemic-related public health concerns or by a desire for a more comfortable home."
13. More than double the share of movers in dense urban areas (20%) said not needing to commute was a main factor in their move vs 10% of other movers. 40% of movers in dense urban areas expect to telecommute regularly vs. about a quarter of of other movers.
14. More on the shift to on-line shopping & implications for air travel. The full study is here: pnas.org/content/118/27…
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