Thread by @MollyMcKew

A non-reset reset, a cyber Cold War, a big yawn

Post-spectacle, how do we make sense of the Biden-Putin meeting?

@Mpolymer @john_sipher and others weigh in via @RenewGreatPower /1

greatpower.us/p/reset-contai…

“Ultimately, I believe that Biden did well and America comes out stronger post-summit. He raised issues that matter, that represent core American values. But to think that this will change Putin’s behavior in any discernible measure is pure fantasy,” says @Mpolymer /2

“Why give Putin the gift of being treated as an equal on the world stage? Why risk ‘re-setting’ relations that could lock-in Putin’s ill-gotten gains? … the Kremlin itself that could change the tone any time it wanted to?” says @john_sipher /3

“It seems obvious that we can all agree now we are officially in a Cyber Cold War,” offers a former CIA ops officer. “The veiled threats & back and forth between Biden & Putin … were eerily reminiscent of the classic US-Soviet face-offs in the 1960s and ‘70s.” /4

A former European intelligence officer: “Right now everyone in Europe is looking at Biden, trying to figure out what he’s going to do or not do. Maybe he himself doesn’t yet know himself. But he sets the course for what comes next.” /5

A former US intel officer: “If Biden & the Democrats stick to a ‘low expectations’ approach with Russia, and are willing to be tough w/ Putin, then that will be good… but the Dems always seem to lose focus w/ Russia. We need containment. Maybe it’ll happen. Fingers crossed.” /6

“The message [from Biden] could have been: ‘China will eat you for dinner and we will not stand in the way.’ It would be an interesting development,” says a senior European official. /7

From Ukraine: “The Biden-Putin meeting was all about de-escalation. If Biden is the engine of this, it will ruin what is left of any US influence in geopolitical affairs [after Presidents Trump and Obama].” /8

Overall, a lot of uncertainty that echoes from memories of the “reset” years, & skepticism that there is will to confront an adversary that has shown little willingness to be deterred from their course of action. But also some reluctant hope

Read more: /9
greatpower.us/p/reset-contai…