My take: People trading based on memes are old human traits wrapped around a word that isn't as old. If fashion is combined with a story and Keynesian beauty contests you have a way for people to make decisions and entertain themselves. Stories are eternal.amp.ft.com/content/e33046…
"How durable is this meme phenomenon?" My take is it isn't new. Like many things it is just human nature amplified by the Internet. Since neither human nature and increased connectivity aren't going away, memes are here to stay. Keynesian beauty contests also weren't new.
"The confidence that individuals have in their beliefs depends mostly on the quality of the story they can tell about what they see, even if they see little,” Kahneman, "Thinking, Fast and Slow.”

“No one ever made a decision because of a number. They need a story.”
3/ I have edited and published two books of "Ah Mo" stories collected by my Great Grandfather Judge Arthur Griffin. The Native American stories he collected often explain natural phenomenon, such as why salmon spawn in rivers or how humans obtained fire. amazon.com/Ah-Mo-Indian-L…

• • •

Missing some Tweet in this thread? You can try to force a refresh
 

Keep Current with Tren Griffin

Tren Griffin Profile picture

Stay in touch and get notified when new unrolls are available from this author!

Read all threads

This Thread may be Removed Anytime!

PDF

Twitter may remove this content at anytime! Save it as PDF for later use!

Try unrolling a thread yourself!

how to unroll video
  1. Follow @ThreadReaderApp to mention us!

  2. From a Twitter thread mention us with a keyword "unroll"
@threadreaderapp unroll

Practice here first or read more on our help page!

More from @trengriffin

22 Jun
1/ When you hear someone say "I don't do a DCF" what they often mean is they don't go through the valuation process you see in a sell-side investment banking report from an analyst based on SWAGs (silly wild ass guesses).

But rational investors still use a DCF based process.
2/ "Customer-based valuation refers to the use of customers as the atomic unit of analysis to estimate the valuation....determine the value at a customer level, and then scale that up to the number of customers to determine the overall value of a business."tanay.substack.com/p/customer-bas…
3/ "Customer lifetime values are dynamic: They are estimates applicable to a moment in time, and not completely precise."

"The value of a customer tends to be very sensitive to churn (existing customer lifetime is just 1/churn) and so be conservative when estimating churn."
Read 6 tweets
22 Jun
My 93 year old father just gave me permission to reveal a Griffin family secret:

You create incredible value without any monetary cost, fiat or otherwise, by being kind to people, being trustworthy, showing up for causes you believe in and standing up for what's right.
Here's an easy example. You see a great aunt. She is struggling. Her life has been hard. Whatever she is wearing you say: "Wow! That's a fabulous outfit. You look great!"

You just printed happiness at zero cost to you. If you don't make the effort to be kind, you're a damn fool.
Here's a hard example. You have a close friend or family member who is struggling with something in their life. Taking the time to listen and be a stand-up human being is what you do. You keep their trust by being trustworthy. You are creating value in this hard situation too.
Read 4 tweets
20 Jun
1/ "When we invest, we defer current consumption in order to consume more (taking inflation into account) in the future. Most investment opportunities don’t guarantee that you’ll have more in the future than you do today, but that’s the motivating driver." forbes.com/sites/kevinhar…
2/ "So it follows that the value of any financial asset is the present value of future cash flows. Say you buy a bond from a company. The coupon reflects the risk of the investment and the maturity tells you about the timing."
Michael Mauboussin
3/ "The value of a stock is based on the same principle. The problem is that there is no coupon or maturity. Even dividends are at best a quasi-contract. The intellectually correct way to value stocks is similar to bonds, and that is a discounted cash flow model." Mauboussin
Read 5 tweets
20 Jun
1/ Charlie Munger likes to remind people that there are businesses which have accounting earnings "but all the excess cash must be reinvested — there's never any cash. It reminds me of the guy who looks at all of his equipment and says, 'There's all of my profit'."
2/ There are also businesses that do generate cash, but the owners reinvest the cash into the business to make it grow. Because this reinvestment in the business creates positive externalities, the tax law allows the owner to offset income with losses from the new investments.
3/ You can say: "That's obvious," but with people often equating revenue with income or cash flow it is perhaps necessary remind people of basic concepts. When I hear someone say: "This business makes a lot of money" its a tell they don't know the difference between these ideas.
Read 6 tweets
18 Jun
Explain this valuation. To get full credit for your answer, show your work using math. ftadviser.com/companies/2021…
"Founded a decade ago, Nutmeg currently counts more than 140,000 clients and over £3.5bn of AUM. In its most recent set of full accounts for 2019, the firm posted a pretax loss of £22 million." finextra.com/newsarticle/38…
"In 2019, Nutmeg raised around £4 million in a securities offering on Crowdcube... 1.49% equity stake at a pre-money valuation of £251 million. Over 2000 investors participated in the securities crowdfunding offering of Nutmeg." crowdfundinsider.com/2021/06/176779…
Read 9 tweets
13 Jun
1/ Wireless services have produced remarkable change in India in a short time. Example: indiatoday.in/technology/new…

Jio introduced five new plans with ''no daily limit'' prepaid mobility offerings. As low as Rs. 127 and go up to Rs. 2,397.

$1 US equals = 73.23 Indian Rupee
2/ "Airtel’s Average Revenue Per User (ARPU) remains higher than Jio’s for the wireless segment at Rs 145 against the latter’s Rs 138." That price is enabled by a range of technologies that will keep getting better. These are still 4G LTE networks. google.com/amp/s/www.newi…
3/ Indian wireless customers have benefitted from a tech lollapalooza. For example: MIMO, Carrier Aggregation, Massive MIMO, virtualization, all IP mobile networks and more spectrum.

An interesting question is how quickly will other countries, say in Africa, see prices this low?
Read 12 tweets

Did Thread Reader help you today?

Support us! We are indie developers!


This site is made by just two indie developers on a laptop doing marketing, support and development! Read more about the story.

Become a Premium Member ($3/month or $30/year) and get exclusive features!

Become Premium

Too expensive? Make a small donation by buying us coffee ($5) or help with server cost ($10)

Donate via Paypal Become our Patreon

Thank you for your support!

Follow Us on Twitter!

:(