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Ninos M

@ninos_mansor

6 May

This cycle, primary markets are maintaining some discipline relative to public market growth.

Raised at 25m when BTC was at $10k, now raising at 70-100m with BTC at $55k?

"Pricey"? Yes. But vals not ballooning vs BTC/ETH growth, a very different picture to the last cycle.

@ninormansor

17/18 was the age of the parabolic VC. Huge rounds, blatant markups and a world where raising $10m was conservative.

This time around, rounds are tight & valuations slowly chug higher; with second/third rounds often underperforming liquid growth.

An old graphic by @ninormansor

This won't last forever & I'd argue the tide is beginning to turn with 80-150m becoming the new norm for marque deals.

But it's a good sign that we are mid-cycle & the catchup between public & private is still somewhat laggy.

Smarter & more patient capital.

Read 6 tweets

Ninos M

@ninos_mansor

29 Apr

Exhaustion - not failure - is the enemy in markets. When the market gives traders a move they have anticipated for years, they don't want it anymore. BTC above $12k, ETHBTC above 0.04. It's almost like OG disbelief is a prerequisite for secular & lasting uptrends.

It feels like this is as common amongst VCs as traders. For whatever reason, a longstanding thesis will often only work after the "strongest hands" who bagheld for years finally give up and move on. Then it works exactly as they imagined.

Very weird & almost demonic. The market (perhaps this market in particular) is like one giant exorcism, transferring from weak to strong. It does everything it can to convince those who thought they were "strong hands" for years to destroy themselves at the final moment.

Read 4 tweets

Ninos M

@ninos_mansor

6 Apr

We're at the stage of the cycle where it's easy to make bad decisions BOTH as a bull and as a bear.

In 1-3YR, the market punishes euphoric private investors plowing into overvalued party rounds. In 3-9M, the market decimates shorts of any kind (BTCUSD, ALTUSD, ALTBTC).

It's the fragmented phase of the cycle. It's no longer enough to *just* get your macro bias correct.

Compare today's private market to Q1-Q3 last year.

You needed two things to make good decisions last year: the belief that primary markets were cheap, & access to solid teams sub $20m valuation.

There are no more decisions that will look or feel this easy.

Read 10 tweets

Ninos M

@ninos_mansor

17 Mar

@anchor_protocol

DeFi resurrects the saver from a fifty year demise.

It begins with @anchor_protocol, an economic primitive that may become crypto’s risk-free rate & foundation for fixed income.

We just published: “Resurrecting The Saver: Walking Tall with Anchor”

arringtonxrpcapital.com/wp-content/upl…

👇

The report is broken up into three parts:

PART I: THE END OF THE SAVER & UNSTOPPABLE RISE OF CENTRAL BANKING

PART II: SALVATION OF THE SAVER, IS CRYPTO READY FOR FIXED INCOME?

PART III: ANCHOR, DEFI’S RISK-FREE RATE & THE STRIPE FOR SAVINGS

PART I covers:

a) The end of the saver, Nixon’s capitulation and Gold’s final deathblow. The new orthodoxy that lionized the debt-craving consumer. Purchasing power dwindling to oblivion; the decline of savings as a % of GNI and real yields wheezing their way to zero.

Read 16 tweets

Ninos M

@ninos_mansor

8 Mar

I would be absolutely terrified to hold any form of ETH short right now. Here's a thought experiment for how reflexive and fragile market psychology is right now.

Imagine Saylor divested 10% of his treasury into ETH. I'm not saying he will - but what would happen if he did?

It's probably not going to be Saylor, but somebody is going to do it. If not the leading BTC Stonk, a blue chip tech company. If not a blue chip tech company, a brave insurance or pension fund. If not 10%, 5%.

Who is first or how large their position is ultimately won't matter. The moment a *credible* treasury allocates into ETH, the market suddenly flicks a switch and gaps like it hasn't done in years.

Shorts clobbered and reflexive narratives crystallised - overnight.

Read 6 tweets

Ninos M

@ninos_mansor

1 Mar

DeFi’s narratives in 2021👇

Slowly chipping at TradFi credibility from synthetics to savings, injecting itself into legacy systems during moments of havoc (GME). Oasis for 24/7 price discovery in an era of dysfunctional markets. A refuge for savers in the yield-deprived sahara, without bankers & their fees.

Institutional products racing to capture inflows (Bitwise the early-mover, Grayscale the 800 pound behemoth). Wall Street rebels warm but unallocated, Wall Street dinosaurs in denial. As with BTC, they ultimately allocate by force, not by will -- client demand dictates all.

Read 8 tweets

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