Thread by @BowTiedBarbary

Do YOU want to grow and learn?
Why are idiots so confident in themselves?

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT

✅Confidence v Competence
✅Growth Curve
✅Circle of Competence
✅Known Unknowns
✅EGO

***A THREAD👇👇

DUNNING-KRUGER EFFECT

✅Graph: Knowledge v Confidence
✅Cup and Handle Distribution
✅Those who know the least are most confident

"The more you know, the more you realize how much you don't know..."

COGNITIVE BIAS

✅DK Effect is an OBSERVED phenomenon
✅Applies to virtually ALL domains/subjects
✅Minimal Knowledge --> High Confidence
✅Experience --> Reduced Confidence

"The more you know, the more you realize how much you do NOT know"

EXAMPLE - Personal Finance

✅Ignorance:
"What's a loan?"

✅Mt Stupid:
"I know what I am doing. I have a credit card"

✅Awareness:
"Student Loans are a nightmare"

✅Despair:
"DCA into 401k, Buy House"

✅Enlightenment:
"BTC, DEFI, Online Businesses, @BowTiedBull Sub"

@BowTiedOx ponders DK Effect...

https://twitter.com/BowTiedOx/status/1395040520733347850?s=20

We are ALL prey to DK Effect

✅1st Rule of your Crypto Bag
✅1st Rule of @BowTiedPlatypus Discord
✅1st Rule of @BowTiedJungle

MANOSPHERE Dunning-Kruger

10% Knowledge @RationalMale
30% TRT @BowTiedOx @BowTiedPatriot
60% Dunning-Kruger @Blacklabellogic

https://twitter.com/Blacklabellogic/status/1142102121820688389?s=20

IMPOSTER SYNDROME

Many Turbo Autists, High-level performers, humble yet competent people...

✅Feeling like "It's Too Good to be True"
✅Emphasize your failures, Ignore Successes
✅Opposite of DK Effect

COMPETENCE HIERARCHY

✅Peak Stupidity - Unconscious Competence

✅Side of Awareness - Conscious Incompetence

✅Slope of Enlightenment - Conscious Competence

✅God Mode - Unconscious Competence

4 Stages of Competence v "DK Curve"

*Cup and Handle Shape*

✅Certainty
✅Doubt
✅Despair
✅Enlightenment

APPLICATION of DK EFFECT

✅What do I not know?
✅Where could Hypothesis fail?
✅Context of Confidence
✅What stage of the learning curve am I in?

EXPERT ENLIGHTMENT v MT STUPID

*Competence: Bell Curve or Pareto Distribution*

@BowTiedRafiki @DeFiGod1 @BowTiedBobcat on the spectrum...

Great Minds think alike @ChainLinkGod

or...

"Mt. Stupid" minds think alike

https://twitter.com/ChainLinkGod/status/1250872116062240768?s=20

POWER OF COMPOUNDING

@JamesClear Atomic Habits

1% Better Each Day...

CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE

*Mental Model* by Charlie Munger

Limit Decision and Investments to...
where you have a Competitive Advantage

DK Effect: Outside RED Circle

DK EFFECT v CIRCLE OF COMPETENCE

Identifying BOUNDARY between Circles is...
More Important than Size of Circle

✅The slope of DK Effect = Yellow Circle
✅"Realizing how much YOU do NOT know"

DEFSEC Rumsfeld: Knowns v Unknowns

1. Knowns
2. Known Unknowns
3. Unknown Unknowns

✅What YOU know
✅What YOU know you don't know
✅What YOU don't know that you don't know

APPLY Circle of Competence to DK Effect

✅Unknown Knowns: Answers Unarticulated
✅Known Knowns: Answers Articulated
✅Known Unknowns: Questions without Answers
✅Unknown Unknowns: Answers without Questions

Barb's Theory

✅Circle of Competence
✅Circumference of Unknowns
✅Radius of Knowns
✅Area of Circle = (πr2)

Knowns: Grows in a straight line (r)
Known Unknowns: Increase in Area (πr2)

Questions increase at Square of Knowledge:
Qs = (π * [Knowldge]^2)

EGO vs Dunning-Kruger Effect

EGO: Valuing Self over Systems

"How do you explain success/failure?"

✅Positive DK:
✅Trial/Error, Discipline of Effective systems

✅Negative DK:
✅Natural Talent, Inherent Characteristics

bowtiedbarbary.substack.com/p/stoicism-for…

SOCRATIC PARADOX

"All I Know Is That I Know Nothing"

✅Wisdom: recognizing your unlimited ignorance
✅Ignorance: Not recognizing your limited wisdom

*Nothing is Certain (except death...maybe)*

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bowtiedbarbary.substack.com/p/mental-model…

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