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Sydney Nash Profile picture
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22 Jun, 6 tweets, 1 min read
"Very significant" changes to the Protocol are simply not going to be made. The text as drafted, agreed, & ratified will remain.
What can change is how far either side is willing to move from their red lines (protection of the SM for the EU, defence of sovereignty for the UK), as implementation of the Protocol proceeds.
If what Lewis has in mind when he says a “significant win” is the EU diluting its protection of the SM, he is going to be disappointed.
If Lewis has in mind the UK govt. being more pragmatic and prioritising the needs of NI over delivering a purist, sovereigntists Brexit, then there could be some positive movement.
Of course, if this is what Lewis is alluding to, and one accepts that that would be a victory for unionists, it wld be a victory over the Brexit purists.
Given that, maybe this isn’t what Lewis means. Indeed, maybe these “assurances” don’t mean much at all.

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More from @NashSGC

Sydney Nash Profile picture
23 Jun
It has become commonplace for senior members of the DUP to state that the Protocol changes the constitutional position of NI within the United Kingdom. This is not true.
The Protocol is unequivocal with regards to NI’s position within the United Kingdom. The preamble affirms that “the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement…shld be protected in all its parts”...
...that agreement (the GFA), in turn, sets out a clear process for bringing about a change in the constitutional status of NI within the UK. That process has not been undertaken.
Read 20 tweets
Sydney Nash Profile picture
23 Jun
It is five years since the referendum and the United Kingdom is a house divided.

Perhaps it always has been. But Brexit has exposed and deepened divisions that threaten to tear the country apart.
When Scotland voted against independence in 2014, it voted for Scotland to remain in a UK that was in the EU. Since 2019, support for independence has gradually grown, driven by remainers who opposed independence in 2014, but would vote for it if they were asked again today.
Taking the UK out of the EU, when Scotland voted to remain in the EU, has significantly increased the likelihood that Scotland will take itself out of the UK.
Read 16 tweets
Sydney Nash Profile picture
22 Jun
It’s important to give people the benefit of the doubt, but one has to wonder how David Jones could be taken in by an assurance like this.
The most cursory glance at the Protocol wld have shown that what was being proposed was permanent; a frontstop, not a backstop, as many said the time.
And even if the Protocol could have been superseded by a UK/EU trade agreement, what type of arrangements did Mr. Jones think would be agreed that could solve the conundrum of the border?
Read 15 tweets
Sydney Nash Profile picture
10 Jun
On the matter of UK public opinion and the protocol, my guess wld be that the majority have no strong view either way.

I think the govt approach right now is about controlling the background noise, rather than activating the majority of voters.
"Banning the Great British banger" is classically Johnsonian. It's a memorable turn of phrase, & points to EU nonsense in the straight banana mold. This is brand building (or reinforcing, given how long Johnson has been doing this), but not yet point of sale marketing.
To put it another way, the pitch is being rolled to try to bring an end to the protocol when the first consent vote takes place. That's the long game.
Read 10 tweets
Sydney Nash Profile picture
21 May
There is no divine or natural reason why the United Kingdom as currently constituted should exist. History did not end with the creation of the United Kingdom. Other polities may yet still be imagined.
We grow up believing that we live in an ancient country. Yet, the United Kingdom as currently constituted is less that one hundred years old. This is rarely discussed. We do not teach it in schools. Few of us know that our United Kingdom was created in 1922.
Of course, today’s United Kingdom did not simply leap out of the void. It was preceded by another, larger, United Kingdom, which was in turn, preceded by a further, smaller, United Kingdom.
Read 71 tweets
Sydney Nash Profile picture
22 Mar
V. interesting perspective here from @anandMenon1 & @jdportes on the current situation between EU/UK.

We got a deal, but no goodwill. This was always likely, but the deterioration in relations this yr has been extraordinary nonetheless.

theguardian.com/commentisfree/…
Last yr’s trade negotiations were unique, not least because they began with the negative intent of pushing the two negotiating partners further apart (trade negotiations normally start from the positive intent of bringing partners closer together).
The UK & EU spent 2020 deciding how distant they wanted to be from each other, and the extent to which they were willing to damage their strategic relationship. The negotiations were acrimonious by nature.
Read 13 tweets

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