It has become commonplace for senior members of the DUP to state that the Protocol changes the constitutional position of NI within the United Kingdom. This is not true.
The Protocol is unequivocal with regards to NI’s position within the United Kingdom. The preamble affirms that “the Good Friday/Belfast Agreement…shld be protected in all its parts”...
...that agreement (the GFA), in turn, sets out a clear process for bringing about a change in the constitutional status of NI within the UK. That process has not been undertaken.
The preamble also notes that NI “is part of the customs territory of the UK and will benefit from participation in the UK’s independent trade policy”.
Art. 4 builds on this stating:
- “Northern Ireland is part of the customs territory of the UK”
- “…nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the UK from including NI in the territorial scope of any agreements it may conclude with third countries”
Art. 4 continues:
- “…nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the UK from concluding agreements with a third country that grant goods produced in NI preferential access to that country’s market”.
Art 4. also states:
- “Nothing in this Protocol shall prevent the UK from including NI in the territorial scope of its Schedules of Concessions annexed to the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade 1994”.
All these statements and provisions are evidence of a legal text that is carefully & quite deliberately confirming & reconfirming that NI’s constitutional status within the U.K. remains unchanged. Members of the DUP should stop claiming otherwise.
The DUP also claim that there is a democratic deficit in relation to the Protocol, which has led Edwin Poots to call for a referendum on it. The view here is that NI never consented to the Protocol.
The Protocol does create a democratic deficit, but not the one Poots and the DUP are pointing to.
The Protocol received democratic consent in a manner that is completely consistent with U.K. democratic norms. It was negotiated by a democratically elected government…
…that government then went to the electorate by way of a general election to seek a mandate to implement the Withdrawal Agreement in full, including the Protocol, & the electorate provided that mandate by re-electing the government with an overwhelming majority.
Finally, a new, democratically elected Parl ratified the WA & the Protocol. The DUP may not like this. They may not like the Protocol. But the Protocol has been brought into force on the back of irrefutable democratic consent in line with the UK’s democratic norms.
Where the DUP can legitimately point to a democratic deficit is in relation the continuing application of some EU rules in NI.
To remove the need for checks/a border on the island of Ireland, NI must dynamically align with some EU rules related to the movement of goods.
However, none of NI’s democratically elected representative (either from the Assembly or Westminster) will have voting rights as new rules develop. NI is now a rule taker.
This gets to the heart of the DUP’s issue with the Protocol. First it annoys the Brexiter in them. Brexiters in GB have freed themselves of EU rules, those in NI have not. It must feel odd to be on the same team but end the game with a different result.
Second, it rankles the unionist in them. They know that, to shape future EU rules that will apply in NI, they will have to lobby EU MS so the views of NI are considered when votes are cast in Brussels. Ultimately, this points to working with Dublin. The DUP resents this, deeply.
For all the DUP‘s claims that the Protocol changes NI’s constitutional status & doesn't have democratic consent, the truth is that they dislike it because it leaves Brexit undone in NI, & will lead to pragmatic politicians in NI seeking cooperation with Dublin.
The DUP would do well to be more honest about this.
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It is five years since the referendum and the United Kingdom is a house divided.
Perhaps it always has been. But Brexit has exposed and deepened divisions that threaten to tear the country apart.
When Scotland voted against independence in 2014, it voted for Scotland to remain in a UK that was in the EU. Since 2019, support for independence has gradually grown, driven by remainers who opposed independence in 2014, but would vote for it if they were asked again today.
Taking the UK out of the EU, when Scotland voted to remain in the EU, has significantly increased the likelihood that Scotland will take itself out of the UK.
The most cursory glance at the Protocol wld have shown that what was being proposed was permanent; a frontstop, not a backstop, as many said the time.
And even if the Protocol could have been superseded by a UK/EU trade agreement, what type of arrangements did Mr. Jones think would be agreed that could solve the conundrum of the border?
What can change is how far either side is willing to move from their red lines (protection of the SM for the EU, defence of sovereignty for the UK), as implementation of the Protocol proceeds.
If what Lewis has in mind when he says a “significant win” is the EU diluting its protection of the SM, he is going to be disappointed.
"Banning the Great British banger" is classically Johnsonian. It's a memorable turn of phrase, & points to EU nonsense in the straight banana mold. This is brand building (or reinforcing, given how long Johnson has been doing this), but not yet point of sale marketing.
To put it another way, the pitch is being rolled to try to bring an end to the protocol when the first consent vote takes place. That's the long game.
There is no divine or natural reason why the United Kingdom as currently constituted should exist. History did not end with the creation of the United Kingdom. Other polities may yet still be imagined.
We grow up believing that we live in an ancient country. Yet, the United Kingdom as currently constituted is less that one hundred years old. This is rarely discussed. We do not teach it in schools. Few of us know that our United Kingdom was created in 1922.
Of course, today’s United Kingdom did not simply leap out of the void. It was preceded by another, larger, United Kingdom, which was in turn, preceded by a further, smaller, United Kingdom.
Last yr’s trade negotiations were unique, not least because they began with the negative intent of pushing the two negotiating partners further apart (trade negotiations normally start from the positive intent of bringing partners closer together).
The UK & EU spent 2020 deciding how distant they wanted to be from each other, and the extent to which they were willing to damage their strategic relationship. The negotiations were acrimonious by nature.