Thread by @NashSGC

It is five years since the referendum and the United Kingdom is a house divided.

Perhaps it always has been. But Brexit has exposed and deepened divisions that threaten to tear the country apart.

When Scotland voted against independence in 2014, it voted for Scotland to remain in a UK that was in the EU. Since 2019, support for independence has gradually grown, driven by remainers who opposed independence in 2014, but would vote for it if they were asked again today.

Taking the UK out of the EU, when Scotland voted to remain in the EU, has significantly increased the likelihood that Scotland will take itself out of the UK.

In Northern Ireland, Brexit has put a delicate peace on the line. The Protocol leaves Northern Ireland’s constitutional status within the UK unchanged, but it does change the practical relationship between Northern Ireland and Great Britain.

The realities of Brexit have been more evident in Northern Ireland than in any other part of the country. There has been disruption. Life is not quite as it was before.

While the practical challenges and annoyances that have resulted from Brexit could be eased, many politicians seem more concerned with stoking dissatisfaction with the new settlement amongst a proportion of the unionist community.

Divisions and tensions in Northern Ireland did not end with the signing of the Good Friday Agreement, but they did ease. Brexit has re-energised them. Now, a settled peace is making way for a renewed dispute about Northern Ireland’s status within the UK.

Divisions in Wales are, of course, not accompanied by anything like the tension seen in NI, but there are divisions, nonetheless. And while the independence debate is not as advanced as it is north of the border, it is accelerating at a rate far greater than we have seen in Sco.

A linguistic divide is now accompanied by an identity divide not least over the question of Brexit, with those who primarily identify as Welsh voting remain, while those who primarily identify as British voting leave.

Competing visions for Wales’ future are emerging. One British and Welsh, one Welsh and European. One pro-Union, leaning towards being anti-devolution; one pro-devolution and increasingly indy curious.

It is against this backdrop that support for Wales’ independence has grown, and while it seems unlikely that Wales will suddenly leave the Union, the question of its status within it is definitely live.

Then there is England. Divided by Brexit just like every other part of the country. However, unlike Wales (and Scotland) where those who primarily identify as British voted leave, in England, they voted remain.

It was voters who primarily identify as English who provided the weight of numbers needed to bring about the decision to leave the European Union.

As the leave/remain debate recedes in England, it leaves in its wake an identity divide, and politicians scrapping over ill-defined notions of patriotism and Englishness.

The decision to leave our continental union, & the way that that decision has been executed, has brought into serious doubt the continuation of our home Union in its current form.

Identity politics have been unleashed. Distinct, and often competing, polities are now embedded across the four nations.

The United Kingdom is a house divided.