Thread by @TheValuesVoter

As those of you who follow me know, I not only dive deep into polls but I also love it when I can find two groups of people who share multiple common demographic characteristics with one area being different.

So I noticed a couple more things.

White Evangelicals across the country tend to vote GOP. However, there is a pretty significant differences in the degree to which this is the case among white evangelicals in the north and white evangelicals in the south. Across multiple Presidential elections.

For example, in 2004, in North Carolina, Bush won white evangelicals 85-15 (+70). But in Michigan that year, Bush won white evangelicals 75-24 (+51).

That’s a 19 point difference.

pewforum.org/2012/12/07/ele…

In 2008, McCain won white evangelicals in Florida 81-18 (+63).

McCain won white evangelicals in Iowa that year 66-32 (+34). A 29 point difference.

There are multiple examples of this in recent elections across multiple states. There is a tendency for this group to vote for Republicans. But nowhere near as much in the north as in the south.

So, what’s up with this? Does Scripture read differently in former Confederate states than it does in the rest of the country? Are there DNA differences between white voters based on where they live in the country?

What it likely is, as I’ve suggested before, is that the affinity toward the Republican Party in the south is as much cultural in nature than it is about issues.

https://twitter.com/TheValuesVoter/status/1398525130846900224

In 2020, Trump won white evangelicals in Alabama 92%-6% (+86).

And in 2020c Trump won white evangelicals in Iowa 75%-24% (+51).

That’s a difference of 35 points, guys!! For the same demographic group in two red states in two different parts of the country. That’s not weird??

Trump won both states easily. And I know Alabama is a very, very Trump-friendly state But, my God! A 35 point difference???

I think people in some regions consider political party affiliation to be a religion in its own right.

Okay, so here are the differences in how much white evangelicals leaned toward the GOP in four of the past five elections but separated by states.

It's a wide range. There are big differences in the intensity of GOP support based on region for this one demographic group.

For each state I can find exit information for in the elections of 2004, 2008, 2016 and 2020 (I can't find good state-level exit poll information in 2012, when exit polling sucked), I ask:

Is the state a former Confederate State?
Is it a Southern state?
Is it in the Deep South?

What you see here is somewhat of a constant: the states where the GOP does the best with white evangelicals, in every election, are deep south states.

Like I said, it's a big range.

In 2004, white evangelicals as a group favored the GOP in different states by a range of +33 points (Iowa) to +77 points (South Carolina).

Same demographic group. Different states/regions. Radically different intensity of support for the GOP candidate.

In 2008, white evangelicals as a group favored the GOP in different states by a range of +29 points (Minnesota) to +88 points (Mississippi).

Extremely wide range for this one demographic group. Again, the highest GOP support among white evangelicals was in the deep south.

In 2016 (when exit polling focused on a narrower number of states), white evangelical support for the GOP ranged from +43 points (Nevada) to +87 points (Georgia).

Again, greatest GOP support by white evangelicals in the deep south.

In 2020, Trump lost about 13 net points among white evangelicals nationally. The range was from +47 points (Michigan) to +86 points (Alabama). Trump lost support among white evangelicals in MI, VA, GA and SC and gained in IA, OH and NC. Stayed flat in TX.

So what does all this mean?

First of all, let's acknowledge that God's Word is the same whether you're reading it or hearing it in Mississippi or Minnesota. Christian values, which are based on God's Word, aren't location-specific either.

But the voting is WAY different.

Everywhere, white evangelicals support the GOP more than the Democrats. But the intensity of the support is significantly different depending on the state. When you sort it out by GOP margins, you see a pattern: white evangelicals in deep south/former CSA states support GOP most.

What do I take from this?

Looking at the data, it doesn't look like the Christianity is the only factor in the affinity of white evangelicals toward the GOP. The range of GOP margins is so great between different states. It seems obvious there is a cultural component as well.

The fascinating thing about the south and especially the former CSA states and the deep south specifically is that these states voted almost exclusively for Democrats for President for a century.

And then the Civil Rights era came.

And within a decade after that and ever since, these states began voting almost exclusively for Republicans for President.

I know that the two major parties changed a lot on social issues. But the changes didn't happen overnight between 1964 and 1972.

But voting behavior did.

Again, part of my fascination is finding two groups that are almost exactly the same except for one thing. And seeing if that one thing is potentially associated with major differences in behavior. Race and Education with only Gender being different. Very interesting.

I provided links for everything so you can check for yourself. And please do. If I made any mistakes, please let me know. Verify everything from everybody. Be like the Bereans.