Weekly French Covid Thread
All pandemic figures are excellent in France, save one: the relentless advance of the Delta variant. Almost 7% of new cases are the Delta form of C19, according to the latest stats. In the Paris area, they jumped to from 4% to 9.6% in a few days. 1/10
All pandemic figures are excellent in France, save one: the relentless advance of the Delta variant. Almost 7% of new cases are the Delta form of C19, according to the latest stats. In the Paris area, they jumped to from 4% to 9.6% in a few days. 1/10
The actual number of cases of Covid of any kind is very low- the lowest since last summer. Deaths and acute hospital cases have fallen sharply for the eighth week in a row. The incidence rate nationwide is 24.1 (cases per 100,000 people/7 days). In April it was 300+. 2/10
But how long can that last with the faster-moving Delta variant now 98% of cases in UK and spreading fast in other countries (see chart, showing change in last month)? The epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola says it's “very probable” Delta will be dominant in France soon.
3/10
3/10
Prof Costagliola said, however, that any rise in cases would be slower than Alpha (UK)-fuelled 3rd Fr wave from Jan because of the low general level of infection. She also said high vax levels in the old (74.3% of 75-79's fully covered) should stop a boom in acute cases.
4/10
4/10
As things stand, the pandemic in France is ebbing rapidly. The av. number of new cases daily is 2,202, compared to 3,522, 6,109 and 9,731 in previous weeks. Deaths are 42 a day, after 55, 67.8 and 119.8. There are 1,560 patients in acute care – compared to 6,000 in April.
5/10
5/10
The vax effort remains good but 1st doses have fallen to circa 200,000 a day instead of 300,000. This follows a drop in demand (driven by complacency as the epidemic slackens). There's also been a shift in govt emphasis towards 2nd jabs. More on vaxes, as usual, on Sat. 6/10
I also looked this week at the stats and graphs on mortality rates published on line by INSEE, the official French stats agency. See graph on 2019, 2020, 2021 deaths from all causes below. There is something weird (at first glance) in the stats, just as there was last year. 7/10
The rise in mortality in France Jan 1-June 6 2021 was 22,290 extra deaths (18% up on 2019 the last “normal” year). I calculate the official number of Covid deaths in that time was 45,297 – twice as many. In other words, “excess mortality” is far LOWER than the C19 death toll 8/10
How can that be? Part of the answer (maybe not all) is in the small-print. So far this year, ALL deaths amongst under 25’s are 13% down on 2019; and among 25-49’s 5% down. Covid lockdowns save live in more ways than one. This skews the overall mortality compared to 2019. 9/10
Hang in there. 10/10
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