Weekly French vaccination thread.
A confusing week – worrying in some respects; encouraging in others.
Demand for 1st vaccinations has slumped again and the Delta variant has jumped to 10% of new cases. On the other hand, 2nd jabs are booming and cases remain very low. 1/12
First doses have dropped to an average of around 200,000 a day, compared to 400,000 in late May and an average of nearly 300,000 for the whole of June. Overall, the vax rate remains on a high plateau of just under 600,000 because of the record rate of 2nd jabs. 2/12
The government is disturbed by the collapse in demand for 1st jabs. (But it institutionalised the slump by shifting the target for 40m 1st jabs from 15 July to 31 Aug.) Efforts are to be made to re-ignite demand with “no appointment” vax-centres and vaxxing in malls etc. 3/12
A big question arises. Is the slowing of demand just a blip, caused by complacency because the pandemic appears to have evaporated? Or is France starting to bump into a glass ceiling of vax-scepticism, vax-shyness and vax-laziness? 4/12
Stats for older age groups are, on the whole, encouraging (but could be better). Are younger people more complacent/vax resistant?
On 24 June, people aged 75+ had been 82.6% 1st vaxxed and 74.8% FULLY vaxxed.
60-74’s were 80.2% 1st vaxxed and 64.1% fully vaxxed.
5/12
With Delta variant starting to take hold, President Macron and PM Castex appealed to younger people this week to get vaccinated fast – not just for their own sake.
Macron: “No one is fully protected until everyone is vaccinated. Lets show solidarity. Lets be responsible.” 6/12
There is particular anger in govt at the low level of vax take-up in health communities. Only 40% of workers in care homes are vaxxed. The danger was shown this week when an unvaxxed worker in an EHPAD (care home) in Landes (S of Bordeaux) spread Delta to a dozen residents. 7/12
Health minister Olivier Véran warned compulsory vaxxing for health workers may be on the way.
Why should health professionals be vax-resistant? An expert told me: “A little knowledge is dangerous. Nurses, carers, some doctors fall for pseudo-scientific stuff on the web.” 8/12
As of last night, France had given first doses to 33,139,912 people – roughly 63.6% of the adult population. Vaccination was complete (with 1,2 or 3 doses, depending on the circs) for 20,678,609 people or 39.6% of the population. 9/12
In June so far the daily jab rate is 594,612, of which 293,022 are 1st doses. But the 1st dose rate fell in the last 7 days to circa 205,000.
The UK’s current 7 day average are 202,461 for 1st jabs and 372,096 overall – far behind France but still way ahead overall. 10/12
On the wider Fr virus picture….cases, acute cases and deaths continue to tumble. New cases average 1,920 a day – the lowest since 12 Aug.
But Delta is now 10% of this v. low number of cases and advancing fast in Paris area, in the SE and SW. In Landes it is 70%.
11/12
There WILL be a Delta-driven 4th wave in France. The questions are when/how big. The high levels of vaccination of the old offers some protection from a surge of acute cases/deaths. But younger people also need to be vaxxed fast
Fingers crossed for a good summer…and autumn
12/12
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All pandemic figures are excellent in France, save one: the relentless advance of the Delta variant. Almost 7% of new cases are the Delta form of C19, according to the latest stats. In the Paris area, they jumped to from 4% to 9.6% in a few days. 1/10
The actual number of cases of Covid of any kind is very low- the lowest since last summer. Deaths and acute hospital cases have fallen sharply for the eighth week in a row. The incidence rate nationwide is 24.1 (cases per 100,000 people/7 days). In April it was 300+. 2/10
But how long can that last with the faster-moving Delta variant now 98% of cases in UK and spreading fast in other countries (see chart, showing change in last month)? The epidemiologist Dominique Costagliola says it's “very probable” Delta will be dominant in France soon.
3/10
Weekly French vaccination thread.
France’s vaccination rate hit a new record this week – 581,708 a day – even though 1st doses slumped.
Second doses and complete vaccinations (not quite the same) are booming. But demand for 1st doses is slackening, as forecast last week. 1/12
First doses, though reasonably high, are being eroded by complacency (as the pandemic falls away) and by resistance from the vax-shy and vax-lazy in older age groups. 1st shots are now averaging 268,772 daily - short of the 306,000 needed to reach 40m first vaxes by 15 July. 2/12
BUT...
PM Jean Castex shifted the goalposts (without anyone noticing much).
He gave end-Aug as a new deadline for 40m 1st jabs – which is Extremely Unambitious (about 112,000 shots a day, below half the current rate). He also said he expected 35m to be fully-vaxxed by then. 3/12
Weekly French vaccination thread.
France will hit its 15 June target of 30m 1st doses today – 3 days early. Another record was set this week with an average of 580,000 doses a day. For the 2nd week in succession, France vaxxed at a higher daily rate than the UK (450,826). 1/12
By last night, France had given 29,831,488 1st jabs since 27 Dec – 169,000 short of the 15 June target. However, the rate of 1st doses has fallen a little. This is partly because zillions of 2nd doses are due. There has also been a slowing of demand. 2/12
Doctolib, the booking site, reports a 44% fall in appointments from the mid-May peak. This may reflect the fact that loads of older people are already vaxxed. Some of the remainder are vax-lazy, shy or resistant. The retreat of the pandemic has eroded the sense of urgency. 3/12
The pandemic is now melting rapidly in France. The average number of cases is 6,109 a day (compared to 40,000 in April). The nationwide incidence rate is 68.6 – only just above the alert threshold of 50 (cases per 100,000 people/7days).
BUT…
1/10
The Delta variant threatens déjà vu all over again. It is now 75% of cases in UK (see chart). There is a worrying outbreak in Landes in the SW but so far Fr. spread is limited. New stats tomorrow. The hope is that vaccination has eroded the link between cases/severe illness 2/10
Jean-François Delfraissy, chairman of France’s scientific council, has tempted fate by saying Fr. could resist Delta better than UK because 80% of its jabs have been Pfizer - more effective v. the variant than AstraZeneca. On the other hand, UK has vaxxed many more people. 3/10
Weekly French vaccination thread.
France had a record-smashing week after vaccination was opened to all over 18’s from Monday. More than 700,000 doses were given on each of the last 2 days – including a new high of 748,001 yesterday. 1/11
The French daily average was 560,394 – well ahead of the UK this week (485,000) and not far behind the best 600,000+ UK weeks in April.
Fr. remains far behind UK overall. UK, with roughly the same population, has given 40m 1st shots and 26.7m 2nd shots. Fr. 27.4m and 12m.
2/11
All the same, France is ahead of target to hit 30m 1st doses by 15 June. Over half - 52.3% - of French adults have received 1 dose. France – and the EU – got off to a slow start (partly thanks to failings of AstraZeneca) but they are now vaxxing at the UK rate or better.
3/11
France is open for tourism from 9 June…
I’m slow with this but….Days after banning travel by non-resident Britons because of the Indian variant, France announced today that fully vaccinated Brits were welcome from next Wed, so long as they had recent negative Covid tests. 1/4
France is also opening up to fully-vaccinated visitors with recent negative tests from the US and many other nationalities – so-called “orange” countries. Vaccinated EU citizens (“green” countries) can travel to France without a test. 2/4
Tourism will not be allowed from 16 “red” countries such as India, SA and Brazil. British visitors who have had 2 jabs will be asked for a a negative PCR test no older than 72 hours or an antigen test no more than 48 hours old. Children can come with a negative test. 3/4