1. We have reams of evidence that physical clustering of firms & people plays a huge role in innovation, creativity, productivity & economic growth.
2. My own hunch is that in-office work does not matter significantly to this process.
3. Though Thomas Allen's famous Allen Curve and Will Strange's work on vertical density merit close consideration. medium.com/@FLOXworks/why…
4.BUT, even if in-office clustering, density & proximity do not matter. It is a big MISTAKE to think dispersed and distributed work will NOT effect innovation, creativity and productivity.
5. Unless a whole lot of research by folks like Ed Glaeser & Enrico Morretti is very wrong, clustering, proximity, density - however you define what "cities do" is a main factor in innovation, creativity & productivity in knowledge-based capitalism.
6. I have elsewhere argued that that tends not to happen in central business districts but rather in innovation clusters like Silicon Valley or Lower Manhattan or Cambridge around MIT. ...
7. Though others have pushed back on that and say a lot of startups are in around say downtown San Francisco.
8. Still the main point is that clustering & density are key factors in innovation & national economic competitiveness.
9. To my mind it is a big mistake to think innovation & clustering do not matter & to be cheering on, or worse devising actual policies, that encourage widespread dispersal & decentralization, tho' the evolution of new regional hubs & clusters merits a look.
10. The US & its cities are not the only place that innovation occurs & talent can shift & relocate to new global clusters, tho' I believe the US still has big advantages in this.
11. Short story: In our haste to extol the virtues of remote work (which I believe in) & to celebrate the demise of office-based control systems (which I am also on board with), we should be careful not to throw the proverbial "baby out with the bathwater."
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1. So what will life, and work, be like after the pandemic? What trends are fleeting, which are more likely to stick around? A quick thread on a new study just out in @PNASNews: pnas.org/content/118/27…
2. The study by a large team of researchers at @ArizonaState & @UofILSystem is based on a survey 7500+ Americans betweenJuly-October 2020.
3. The study looked at reported changes in the way people work, commute, shop, & how & where they live. (One caveat which the study notes: surveys are contextual and temporally bounded so patterns & behaviors may change as we pass through the pandemic with time).
1. We arrived in Toronto last week from visiting family in Michigan. Here is the process for crossing the border into Canada & dealing with COVID restrictions.
2. We were the only car in the border line in Sarnia, while trucks were back up for miles on both sides of the border.
3. We are fully vaccinated with 2 doses of Pfizer. Our 2 kids ages 4 and 5 are not.
1. This is a very important paper which traces long distances moves for different classes of people. The big conclusion is that the moves of more affluent higher income people are away from more restrictive or stringent place to less restrictive ones. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf…
2. "We find 10-20% of moves between April 2020-February 2021 were influenced by COVID-19, with a significant shift in migration towards smaller cities, lower cost of living locations, and locations with fewer
pandemic-related restrictions."
3. "We find very different patterns across higher-income and lower-income migrants with higher income households moving out of more populous cities at greater rates, and moving more for lifestyle reasons and much less for work-related reasons compared to the pre-pandemic period."
1. I have no doubt superstar cities will be fine in the long run. But I think this fall and winter will be a critical time for the short to medium term prospects of places like New York, San Francisco, Chicago, Boston, and Toronto.
2. I think one reason people - particularly risk seeking entrepreneurs, venture capitalists & finance types - have been flocking to places like Miami and Austin, is the ability to go about their lives and business freeway. In a word personal liberty.
3. If all goes well this fall and winter up north, I think many. will return, and many more will stay put...
1. I am an American who lives in Canada. And I spend considerable time in both countries. During this COVID crisis, I have come to see a troubling divide in how the US treats Canadians versus how Canada treats Americans (and its own citizens who travel to America).
2. As of now, much of the US welcomes Canadians into the country with a PCR test. It imposes no quarantine & no restrictions.
3. US states & cities readily vaccinate Canadians in the US. not just residents but travellers & visitors. I personally know dozens upon dozens of Canadians who have been vaccinated in the US.
2. There is no doubt in my mind that clustering will remain critical to both innovation & productivity growth, even in the wake of COVID-19 and the rise of remote work.
3. Clustering has only become stronger in the wake of previous advances in "distance enhancing" technology. Not so obvious reasons why this time should be different.