1. Many seem to believe "the great reopening" is going to lead to accelerating job creation and economic activity. Bad news folks, the reopening already happened. It started in May 2020 and now is largely complete. The remaining business activity restricted by COVID is minimal
2. There has been permanent demand destruction and economic scarring. What's left to come (int'l tourism, white collar workers returning to office, full school reopening) are the final dregs, not the main show. The diminishing marginal gains have been clear since summer 2020.
3. Strong job numbers in March were merely a rebound from the Winter wave dip, not the beginning of a new positive trend.
4. Stimulus checks are in the rearview, UB is running out; disposable incomes are shrinking significantly as we speak with waning fiscal support. Eviction moratoriums and debt forbearances are expiring.
5. Perhaps UB expirations will lead to a bump in new hires, but that still represents a net loss in income if the reason they have remained unemployed is because their UB was higher than their wages.
6. Fiscal and monetary policy is boxed in a corner - inflation pressure is too real to ignore, interest rates cannot be lowered, and helicopter money is an increasingly unpopular and ineffective solution.
7. The hope of life "after COVID" has allowed us to ignore the objective present in favor of a hopeful future, as limitless as our imagination allows. Collectively, this suspension of disbelief will be awakened, perhaps forcefully, by the bleak reality.
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