Thread by @hayward_katy

Why are post-Brexit N.Ireland politics so fraught?

There’s some illuminating data in @ARK_info NI Life&Times survey

We’ve asked Qs since 2016 on perceived impact of #Brexit on the prospect of Irish unification

This thread & @UKandEU blog explain:
ukandeu.ac.uk/northern-irela…

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In 2016, a clear majority in NI thought #Brexit made no difference to likelihood of Irish unity or their views about it.

#Unionists didn’t want or expect it.

#Nationalists wanted it but didn’t expect it any time soon.

Those who were ‘Neither’ didn't think it changed much.

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By end 2020, the majority in NI think #Brexit makes a united Ireland more likely.

Nationalists' expectations grew steeply over the 5 yrs

A less steep but similar trajectory for Neithers

Over 2020, i.e. post-WA, the largest proportion of unionists came to believe this too

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In terms of party supporters, the picture is striking.

3/4 @sinnfeinireland, @SDLPlive & @allianceparty voters think UK exit from the EU makes a united Ireland more likely.

A plurality of @uuponline voters (44%) agree with them, as do almost a third of @duponline voters.

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And what about people’s views on Irish unity itself?

2016-17, a clear majority said #Brexit made no difference

By 2020, 72% nationalists & 42% Neithers say Brexit makes them more in favour of a united Ireland

Among unionists, sentiment is moving in the opposite direction

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So, the sense of urgency & momentousness in unionist responses to the Protocol is affected by:
- the widely-held view that Brexit has made Irish unity a more likely prospect
- growth in support for it among nationalists & neithers
- growth in opposition to it among unionists

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