Thread by @hayward_katy

A thread on the #Brexit dish of the day:
Article 16 of the NI/IRL #Protocol.

There’s momentum (👋@uuponline @duponline) gathering behind the idea that the UK Govt should trigger safeguard measures re: the Protocol.

(Yes, already)

Why so, & what might it do?
TL;DR: zilch

1/11

First, why the calls for it?
Well.
#Brexit means change to UK-EU trade, & the #Protocol means that that is taking effect down the Irish Sea.

There was too little time & too little info to prepare.

There are [wholly predictable] consequences.
🛃
2/11

bbc.co.uk/news/uk-northe…

Why invoke #Art16 of the Protocol?

It allows unilateral #safeguard measures - a common/necessary feature in trade agmts.

The purpose is to create a temporary breathing space in response to an unforeseen & sudden negative effect arising from the agmt.

Here's what it says👇
3/11

There are some key criteria upfront:
🚩serious economic, societal or environmental difficulties
🚩that are liable to persist.

i.e. things that cd not be addressed with, say, time, familiarisation, clear info & straight-up acknowledgement of the challenge (🧐@BrandonLewis).

4/11

The problem has been exacerbated by the ‘thinness’ of the TCA (e.g. no equivalence for SPS)
+ exacerbated by late preparation (e.g. gov info still being released on 31 Dec).

So the Q arises:

What specific, unilateral, limited safeguard measures would the UK Govt propose?

5/11

Thirdly [assuming the UKG did have a clear & specific remedy for the serious unexpected difficulty], the EU wd then be entitled to implement its own rebalancing mechanism.
⚖️

What would it be & would NI be able to cope with it [bearing in mind the purpose of the Protocol]?
6/11

Anyway, let's just imagine that the UKGovt does decide to trigger Article 16...

Well, then this is to be governed by the procedures set out in Annex 7 of the Protocol.

[Hmmmm, those darned annexes]

This an international agreement, folks.
No quick fix or easy way out.

7/11

If the UK or EU is even so much as *considering* taking safeguard measures, “it shall, without delay, notify” the other party.

+ provide “all relevant information” [which should, let's remember, point to “serious... difficulties” that were unexpected & really unavoidable.

8/11

Then they enter into a consultation period to find a “commonly acceptable solution”, i.e. acceptable to all EU27+UK.

Unless we're talking “exceptional circumstances requiring immediate action” [read: sudden, out of the blue] there’s 1month to wait before safeguards kick in.
9/11

Even if they come into play, is that the end of it?
Nope.

They will be reviewed every three months. And the expectation is that these safeguard measures have an expiry date and/or are severely restricted.

See Annex 7 again - it's all there in plain sight.

10/11

So is Art 16 the way to smooth the operation of the Protocol?
No. That requires UKG action, clear messaging, info, & adjustment.

If Art 16 was triggered, it wd not end the Protocol or the problems.

There's no quick fix, just heavy & serious reality-checking to be done.
😔
11/11