Understanding of UK’s position on the Irish protocol is changing in the EU.
The original view was that the UK was “playing hardball” to extract advantages & “appease domestic voter base”.
This view is now considered to have been a false reading of UK govt’s policy…
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Emerging EU view now is that Johnson simply doesn’t want a Northern Ireland that can extract benefits from a compromise status which gives NI advantages over restUK due to a negotiated aligned position with EU.
As this would offer a template of successful EU-UK relationship.
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The debate in EU has been whether UK policy was merely “tactics” playing hardball to extract your extra benefits - or a “strategy” to reach a set final objective.
Turns out neither might be true & instead a permanent awkward dysfunctional status quo may be the real aim.
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If true then EU may have to recalibrate it’s policy as it might not be dealing with a state that wants to maximise benefits from negotiations.
Instead the point from UK side may merely be to keep dysfunctional negotiations going while creating a “narrative of EU bullying”.
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EU to grant Northern Ireland an extension on chilled meat - the “sausage war” - for 3 months.
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This additional grace period agreed by the EU “assumes” that UK aligns with EU food standards rules during this time.
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This additional grace period also “assumes” (ie stipulates) that the UK works towards ways to undertake processes & actions that will fulfil the northern Irish protocol in a “sustainable way”.
A number of Conservative MPs in southern “LibDem facing” seats have already told Conservative HQ they believe their 2019 election results “won’t be repeated” as the fear of Jeremy Corbyn getting in suppressed LibDem votes at the last election.
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Tory MPs in these areas think Starmer is effectively copying the 1997 election strategy whereby soft Tory areas go LibDem.
While “defusing” the Brexit issue in leave voting trad. labour seats where Tory gains in midland/north are expected to melt as Tory-Brexit reality sets in.
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Also the logic is that the demographic/social change in places like SW London & Buckinghamshire was already going on before Brexit but that Corbyn “suppressed” this vote.
In other words quite a large number of southern leafy seats are “ready to drop” with the right strategy.
There's basically 3 ways a UK govt can show its population “Brexit was the right choice”
1. A post-Brexit UK economic boom 2. EU collapses
Nobody sane thinks the 1st will happen, while the 2nd is extremely unlikely & beyond UK’s control in any case. Which leaves one other way…
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The other option would be to engineer continual grievance with, & of, the EU…& Europeans in general.
In this scenario “Brexit can never be finished” as otherwise this would not enable it’s eternal struggle against Europeans attempt to “thwart British success”.
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One suspects therefore that even if the Irish protocol didn’t exist, the UK govt would have to invent another issue to consume the populace.
As a Brexit that is finished…is one that is shown to have not delivered what was promised.
It was clear LibDems were going to do well. But I have to be honest I had it down as neck & neck - not this.
I’m guessing as well as superb tactical discipline by Labour voters, analysis will show young (ie under 40s) Conservative vote now much softer than I thought.